https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/feed.xml Bellwether: biggest changes in the odds Races whose chance of winning moved most over the past 7 days. Odds are the share of simulations each side wins. 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-sen-KS/#2026-10-19 Kansas: 61 → 52 in 100 for Hamilton 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Kansas: Hamilton’s chance of winning went down from 61 in 100 to 52 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Marshall: 48 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-TX-15/#2026-10-19 Texas District 15: 78 → 83 in 100 for Pulido 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Texas District 15: Pulido’s chance of winning went up from 78 in 100 to 83 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Cruz: 17 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-KY-06/#2026-10-19 Kentucky District 6: 69 → 73 in 100 for Dembo 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Kentucky District 6: Dembo’s chance of winning went up from 69 in 100 to 73 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Alvarado: 27 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-AR-02/#2026-10-19 Arkansas District 2: 28 → 32 in 100 for Jones 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Arkansas District 2: Jones’s chance of winning went up from 28 in 100 to 32 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Hill: 68 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-NE-01/#2026-10-19 Nebraska District 1: 33 → 37 in 100 for Backemeyer 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Nebraska District 1: Backemeyer’s chance of winning went up from 33 in 100 to 37 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Flood: 63 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-MN-01/#2026-10-19 Minnesota District 1: 29 → 32 in 100 for Johnson 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Minnesota District 1: Johnson’s chance of winning went up from 29 in 100 to 32 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Finstad: 68 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-OH-15/#2026-10-19 Ohio District 15: 26 → 29 in 100 for Leonard 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Ohio District 15: Leonard’s chance of winning went up from 26 in 100 to 29 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Carey: 71 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-sen-NE/#2026-10-19 Nebraska: 37 → 40 in 100 for Osborn 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Nebraska: Osborn’s chance of winning went up from 37 in 100 to 40 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Ricketts: 60 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-OH-07/#2026-10-19 Ohio District 7: 90 → 93 in 100 for Poindexter 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Ohio District 7: Poindexter’s chance of winning went up from 90 in 100 to 93 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Miller: 7 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-sen-VA/#2026-10-19 Virginia: 100 → 98 in 100 for Warner 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Virginia: Warner’s chance of winning went down from 100 in 100 to 98 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Mizusawa: 3 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-sen-IA/#2026-10-19 Iowa: 51 → 53 in 100 for Turek 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Iowa: Turek’s chance of winning went up from 51 in 100 to 53 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Hinson: 47 in 100). https://bellwether-zak.vercel.app/race/2026-house-PA-08/#2026-10-19 Pennsylvania District 8: 62 → 65 in 100 for Cognetti 2026-10-19T01:14:44+00:00 Pennsylvania District 8: Cognetti’s chance of winning went up from 62 in 100 to 65 in 100 since 2026-10-12 (Bresnahan: 35 in 100).