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Generic ballot

Pollster ratings →

Asked which party they’d back for Congress, voters favor Democrats by 8.2 points in the average of 26 recent polls (adjusted for house effects and likely voters).

D +2.8 over the past 6 months
EvenD+2.0D+4.0D+6.0D+8.0D+10.0D+12.0May 1Jun 1Jul 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

13 generic-ballot polls ended in the last 30 days; the latest ended Oct 12. 9 of them were entered from the pollsters’ own releases because our main poll feed doesn’t carry them.

PollsterEnd dateSampleResultAdjusted
YouGovOct 121,403 RVD+7.0D+7.2
YouGovOct 51,381 RVD+9.0D+9.2
Pew Research CenterOct 43,917 RVD+8.0D+8.1
YouGov - CBS NewsOct 21,572 LVD+9.0D+8.9
YouGovSep 281,429 RVD+8.0D+8.2
HarrisX/HarrisSep 28— LVD+2.0D+4.7
Quinnipiac UniversitySep 271,032 RVD+12.0D+9.7
Emerson CollegeSep 221,000 LVD+11.0D+11.4
The Argument/VerasightSep 22— LVD+10.0D+9.2
YouGovSep 211,401 RVD+9.0D+9.2
VerasightSep 21— RVD+8.0D+6.2
Echelon InsightsSep 211,002 LVD+8.0D+9.0
IpsosSep 20979 RVD+8.0D+9.8
CNN/SSRSSep 17867 RVD+8.0D+7.5
Marist CollegeSep 151,280 RVD+12.0D+10.2
YouGovSep 141,461 RVD+5.0D+5.2
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchSep 141,211 RVD+7.0D+6.2
YouGovSep 81,015 LVD+11.0D+11.2
Quinnipiac UniversitySep 6970 RVD+11.0D+8.7
Morning ConsultSep 62,203 RVD+4.0D+5.8
YouGovAug 311,592 AD+5.0D+4.3
IpsosAug 31924 RVD+5.0D+6.8
YouGovAug 241,534 AD+6.0D+5.3
YouGovAug 241,377 RVD+6.0D+6.2
IpsosAug 241,215 AD+6.0D+6.9

Presidential approval

President Trump’s net approval (approve minus disapprove) averages -24.6. Unpopular presidents usually cost their party seats in midterms; the model uses this as a weak prior on the national environment.

−15.6 pts over the past year
-40-30-20-100+10Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

12 approval polls ended in the last 30 days; the latest ended Oct 12. 10 of them were entered from the pollsters’ own releases because our main poll feed doesn’t carry them.