Control odds · Oct 19
Senate control: Democrats 77 in 100, Republicans 22 in 100
Democrats were 78 in 100 on Oct 12: down 1 point in a week.
2026 midterm forecast · 15 days to go
Who will control Congress?
Our model simulates the Nov. 3 election 40,000 times using polls, each race’s partisan lean and the national mood. Updated Oct 18, 9:14 PM ET.
Senate
77 in 100
Democrats win the Senate in 77 of 100 simulations. Republicans win 22; 1 end with no majority.
7 likely to flip to D 7 · 2 more could
Typical result: 53 D (80 in 100: 48–56)All Senate races →
House
98 in 100
Democrats win the House in 98 of 100 simulations. Republicans win 2.
30 likely to flip to D 26 · to R 4 · 14 more could
Typical result: 240 D (80 in 100: 226–255)All House races →
Each dot is a seat, colored by how likely each side is to win it; lighter end dots in the Senate aren’t up this year. A yellow ring marks a seat likely to change parties. Select a dot to open its race. Odds: 77 and 98 in 100 for Democrats.
Latest
All updates →Control odds · Oct 19
House control: Democrats 98 in 100, Republicans 2 in 100
Unchanged from a week ago (Democrats 97 in 100).
Race movers · Oct 19
Kansas: Hamilton 61 → 52 in 100 over the past week
Marshall: 39 → 48 in 100. Chance of winning, from the simulations.
New poll · Oct 12
Generic ballot: YouGov has Democrats +7
Poll ended Oct 12, RV, 1,403 respondents. Our adjusted figure: Democrats +7.
1
Odds, not predictions
We simulate the election 40,000 times. “77 in 100” means that side won 77 of every 100 runs — the other side still wins sometimes.
2
Polls plus context
Each race blends its polling average with the state’s partisan lean and the national mood. The closer to Election Day, the more polls count.
3
Races move together
If polls miss in one state, they usually miss in similar ones too. That’s built in, so upsets come in bunches like they do in real life.
What’s on your ballot?
Coming up
- Nov 320262026 midterm electionsAll 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats (including specials in Florida and Ohio) and 36 governors.
- Dec 12026Georgia runoff, if neededGeorgia requires a majority; if no one tops 50%, the top two meet four weeks later.
- Dec 122026Louisiana House runoffs, if neededTop two from the Nov. 3 all-party House primary, where no one won a majority.
Races to watch
The closest Senate and governor contests right now.
SenateToss-up
Likely flip · R → D
Kansas
Hamilton 5248 Marshall
▲ Marshall +9
SenateToss-up
Likely flip · R → D
Iowa
Turek 5347 Hinson
▲ Turek +2
GovernorToss-up
Likely flip · R → D
Georgia
Bottoms 5446 Jackson
▲ Bottoms +2
SenateLean R
Could flip · R → I
Nebraska
Osborn 4060 Ricketts
▲ Osborn +3
SenateLean R
Could flip · R → D
South Carolina
Andrews 3862 Graham
▲ Andrews +1
GovernorLean D
Likely flip · R → D
Nevada
Ford 6535 Lombardo
▲ Ford +2
SenateLean D
Likely flip · R → D
Alaska
Peltola 6634 Sullivan
▲ Peltola +1
GovernorLean R
Could flip · R → D
Nebraska
Walz 3268 Pillen
▲ Walz +1
Think the polls are wrong?
Build your own map →Pick your own winners, shift the national mood, and share your map.
Likely to flip
Seats where the party favored to win is not the party that holds the seat today, listed in the order the model is surest. 44 are likely to change parties (50 in 100 or better); 18 more could (25–49 in 100). The count covers both directions.
Senate (7)
- North CarolinaR → D99 in 100
- Ohio (special)R → D82 in 100
- MaineR → D81 in 100
- TexasR → D69 in 100
- AlaskaR → D66 in 100
- IowaR → D53 in 100
- KansasR → D52 in 100
Governors (7)
House (30)
- Louisiana District 6D → R>99 in 100
- California District 1R → D>99 in 100
- Nebraska District 2R → D>99 in 100
- California District 48R → D99 in 100
- California District 22R → D96 in 100
- Ohio District 7R → D92 in 100
- Arizona District 1R → D92 in 100
- Wisconsin District 3R → D91 in 100
- Arizona District 6R → D90 in 100
- Iowa District 1R → D90 in 100
- Pennsylvania District 7R → D90 in 100
- Tennessee District 9D → R89 in 100
- and 18 more — see all house
“Holds the seat today” is the party of the current officeholder. In the ten states with new House maps (AL, CA, FL, LA, MO, NC, OH, TN, TX, UT) it is the party of the sitting member, whose district lines have changed.
Senate
In a typical simulation Democrats and allied independents hold 53 seats; in 80 of 100 they land between 48 and 56. They need 51, since Vice President Vance breaks 50–50 ties for Republicans.
Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R
Solid ≥95 in 100 · Likely 75–95 · Lean 60–75 · Toss-up under 60 for either side · Independent favored · Likely to flip (50+ in 100 to change parties) · Could flip (25–49)
100 simulated Senates
Each dot is one outcome: how many seats Democrats and allied independents hold. Blue dots reach 51.
Tipping-point races
The race most likely to hand one party its majority, across simulations.
Every race, in order
From the Democrats’ best chance to the Republicans’ best chance.
Closest Senate races
| Race | Rating | Non-Republican side | Republican side | Projected margin | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Toss-up Likely flip · R → D | Adam Hamilton 52 in 100 | Roger Marshall 48 in 100 | Hamilton +0.3 | 3 |
| Iowa | Toss-up Likely flip · R → D | Josh Turek 53 in 100 | Ashley Hinson 47 in 100 | Turek +0.3 | 14 |
| Nebraska | Lean R Could flip · R → I | Dan Osborn (I) 40 in 100 | Pete Ricketts 60 in 100 | Ricketts +1.1 | 2 |
| South Carolina | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Annie Andrews 38 in 100 | Darline Graham 62 in 100 | Graham +1.2 | 2 |
| Alaska | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | Mary Peltola 66 in 100 | Dan S. Sullivan 34 in 100 | Peltola +1.6 | 7 |
| Texas | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | James Talarico 69 in 100 | Ken Paxton 31 in 100 | Talarico +1.8 | 26 |
| Maine | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Troy Jackson 81 in 100 | Susan Collins 19 in 100 | Jackson +3.3 | 14 |
| Ohio (special) | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Sherrod Brown 82 in 100 | Jon Husted 18 in 100 | Brown +3.5 | 13 |
House
Democrats win a median of 240 seats (218 is a majority); in 80 of 100 simulations they win 226–255. District lines reflect the 2026 maps, including the ten states that redrew mid-decade.
Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R
Solid ≥95 in 100 · Likely 75–95 · Lean 60–75 · Toss-up under 60 for either side · Independent favored · Likely to flip (50+ in 100 to change parties) · Could flip (25–49)
100 simulated Houses
Seats won by Democrats in each simulation. Blue dots reach 218.
Closest House races
- Alabama District 2 Figures 48 · Marques 52
- Wisconsin District 1 Berman 54 · Steil 46
- Montana District 1 Forstag 46 · Flint 54
- Michigan District 4 McCann 44 · Huizenga 56
- Florida District 7 Dalton 56 · Elijah 44
- New York District 1 Gallant 42 · LaLota 58
- Pennsylvania District 1 Harvie 42 · Fitzpatrick 58
- Maine District 2 Dunlap 60 · LePage 40
Governors
36 states elect governors. Democrats win an average of 22.8 of them and Republicans 13.2.
| Race | Rating | Non-Republican side | Republican side | Projected margin | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia · runoff 40 in 100 | Toss-up Likely flip · R → D | Keisha Lance Bottoms 54 in 100 | Rick Jackson 46 in 100 | Bottoms +0.4 | 9 |
| Nevada | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | Aaron Ford 65 in 100 | Joe Lombardo 35 in 100 | Ford +1.7 | 2 |
| Nebraska | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Lynne Walz 32 in 100 | Jim Pillen 68 in 100 | Pillen +2.4 | 1 |
| Vermont | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | Amanda Janoo 70 in 100 | Phil Scott 30 in 100 | Janoo +3.2 | 3 |
| Texas | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Gina Hinojosa 29 in 100 | Greg Abbott 71 in 100 | Abbott +2.0 | 23 |
| Oregon | Likely D | Tina Kotek 76 in 100 | Christine Drazan 24 in 100 | Kotek +3.0 | 2 |
How the odds have moved
Chance of Democratic control (polls + fundamentals). Use the buttons to zoom in or out, like a stock chart. Points before Oct 18, 2026 are recomputed from the polls available on each date, since the site launched then.
senate
house
Model vs. markets
Prediction markets are bets, not polls, and they are not an input to this forecast. They’re shown so you can see where traders disagree with the model.
Market prices normalized so both parties sum to 100. Fetched with the forecast.
What changed
Biggest movers over the past week, by change in win probability.
Senate
Kansas
▲ Marshall +9
Hamilton 61 → 52 in 100
House
Texas District 15
▲ Pulido +5
Pulido 78 → 83 in 100
House
Kentucky District 6
▲ Dembo +4
Dembo 69 → 73 in 100
House
Arkansas District 2
▲ Jones +4
Jones 28 → 32 in 100
House
Nebraska District 1
▲ Backemeyer +4
Backemeyer 33 → 37 in 100
House
Minnesota District 1
▲ Johnson +3
Johnson 29 → 32 in 100
House
Ohio District 15
▲ Leonard +3
Leonard 26 → 29 in 100
Senate
Nebraska
▲ Osborn +3
Osborn 37 → 40 in 100
Update log
No race moved by 3 or more points since the last update. The log fills in as daily runs accumulate.
The national environment
The generic-ballot average is D+8.2 and the president’s net approval is -24.6. Blending the two, the model expects a national environment of D+9.6, give or take about 2.4 points. See the trackers →