Kurt Alme wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Kurt Alme +18.9 across 13 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Kurt Alme +12.9. Polls get 87% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Alme +18.1; 80 in 100 fall between Alme +23.2 and Alme +13.0.
Kurt Gordon Alme is an American attorney who served from March 2025 to March 2026 as the United States attorney for the District of Montana. He resigned to run in the 2026 United States Senate election in Montana. He is the Republican nominee in the election. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Alme +18.9 across 13 polls testing Alani Bankhead against Kurt Alme.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & PollingC for KULR-TV | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 604 LV | Alme +26.0 | Alme +26.3 | 0.50 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 625 LV | Alme +21.0 | Alme +19.2 | 0.54 |
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ for Forward Montana | Aug 1–Aug 4 | 800 LV | Alme +30.0 | Alme +28.3 | 0.36 |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | Alme +18.0 | Alme +13.9 | 0.14 |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | Alme +27.0 | Alme +22.9 | 0.14 |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | Alme +25.0 | Alme +20.9 | 0.14 |
| Tavern Research | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | Alme +20.0 | Alme +15.9 | 0.14 |
| GQRB− for Contours Inc. | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | Alme +19.0 | Alme +21.5 | 0.18 |
| GQRB− for Contours Inc. | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | Alme +4.0 | Alme +6.5 | 0.18 |
| GQRB− for Contours Inc. | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | Alme +8.0 | Alme +10.5 | 0.18 |
| The Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 793 LV | Alme +14.0 | Alme +13.7 | 0.30 |
| GrayHouse · REP sponsor | Jun 23–Jun 24 | 500 LV | Alme +16.0 | Alme +13.6 | 0.09 |
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ · DEM sponsor for The Majority Institute | Jun 18–Jun 24 | 800 LV | Alme +6.0 | Alme +3.9 | 0.11 |
| Tavern Research | Jun 16–Jun 19 | 400 LV | Alme +22.0 | Alme +17.8 | 0.00 |
| Tavern Research · DEM sponsor | Jun 16–Jun 19 | 400 LV | Alme +12.0 | Alme +7.8 | 0.00 |
| Public Opinion StrategiesC+ · REP sponsor for The Political Company | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | Alme +19.0 | Alme +15.7 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Bankhead 0, Alme 100.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 87% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Alme +18.9 | ±4.4 sampling range; effective 9.4 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Alme +12.9 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Alme +18.7 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Alme +18.1 | ±4.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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