Updates
New polls, changes in the odds of controlling each chamber, and the races whose odds moved most this week. Items are generated from the forecast data each time it refreshes; notes from the team always name a source. Also available as a feed.
Monday, October 19
- Control odds
Democrats were 78 in 100 on Oct 12: down 1 point in a week.
Source: Bellwether model
- Control odds
Unchanged from a week ago (Democrats 97 in 100).
Source: Bellwether model
- Race movers
Marshall: 39 → 48 in 100. Chance of winning, from the simulations.
Source: Bellwether model
- Race movers
Cruz: 22 → 17 in 100. Chance of winning, from the simulations.
Source: Bellwether model
- Race movers
Alvarado: 31 → 27 in 100. Chance of winning, from the simulations.
Source: Bellwether model
- Race movers
Hill: 72 → 68 in 100. Chance of winning, from the simulations.
Source: Bellwether model
- Dates
All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats (including specials in Florida and Ohio) and 36 governors.
Source: Wikipedia, 2026 United States elections
Monday, October 12
- New poll
Poll ended Oct 12, RV, 1,403 respondents. Our adjusted figure: Democrats +7.
Source: YouGov
- New poll
Poll ended Oct 12, RV, 1,403 respondents.
Source: YouGov
Tuesday, October 6
- New poll
Poll ended Oct 6, RV, 2,000 respondents.
Source: RMG Research
Monday, October 5
- New poll
Poll ended Oct 5, RV, 1,381 respondents. Our adjusted figure: Democrats +9.
Source: YouGov
- New poll
Poll ended Oct 5, RV, 1,381 respondents.
Source: YouGov
Sunday, October 4
- New poll
Poll ended Oct 4, RV, 3,917 respondents. Our adjusted figure: Democrats +8.
Source: Pew Research Center
Friday, October 2
- New poll
Poll ended Oct 2, LV, 1,572 respondents. Our adjusted figure: Democrats +9.
Source: YouGov - CBS News
Odds are the share of simulations each side wins; they are not predictions of certainty. How the model works.