Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 73 in 100 that it changes hands.
Zach Dembo wins in 73 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Zach Dembo +6.0 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ralph Alvarado +4.1. Polls get 63% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Dembo +2.2; 80 in 100 fall between Alvarado +2.6 and Dembo +7.0.
Ralph A. Alvarado is an American physician and politician who most recently served as the 15th Commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health from 2023 until his resignation in 2025. He previously served as a member of the Kentucky Senate, representing Kentucky's 28th Senate district from 2015 to 2023. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Dembo +6.0 across 3 polls testing Zach Dembo against Ralph Alvarado.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change ResearchB− · DEM sponsor for Kentuckians Not Corruption | Sep 29–Oct 5 | 524 LV | Dembo +9.0 | Dembo +7.1 | 0.21 |
| Lake Research PartnersC · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 400 LV | Dembo +3.0 | Dembo +3.1 | 0.09 |
| Lake Research PartnersC · DEM sponsor for House Majority PAC | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 400 LV | Dembo +6.0 | Dembo +6.1 | 0.09 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Dembo 73, Alvarado 27.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 63% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Dembo +6.0 | ±4.3 sampling range; effective 2.5 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Alvarado +4.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Dembo +2.2 | ±3.5 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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