Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 27 in 100 that it changes hands.
Jeff Crank wins in 73 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jeff Crank +3.4.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Crank +3.5; 80 in 100 fall between Crank +10.8 and Killin +3.8.
Jeffrey George Crank is an American politician and radio show host who has served as the U.S. representative for Colorado's 5th congressional district since 2025. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Jessica Killin against Jeff Crank yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Killin 27, Crank 73.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Crank +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Crank +3.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Crank +3.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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