Democrats hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Republicans have a real chance: 28 in 100 that it changes hands.
Marcy Kaptur wins in 72 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Marcy Kaptur +0.2 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Marcy Kaptur +4.3. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kaptur +2.2; 80 in 100 fall between Merrin +2.8 and Kaptur +7.1.
Marcia Carolyn Kaptur is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 9th congressional district since 1983. Her district stretches across northwestern Ohio along the southern shore of Lake Erie and includes parts of Toledo and surrounding communities. She is a member of the Democratic Party. Wikipedia
Derek Scott Merrin is an American politician who previously served as the state representative for the 42nd District of the Ohio House of Representatives. He was the Republican nominee for Ohio's 9th congressional district in 2024, where he was narrowly defeated by incumbent Marcy Kaptur. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Kaptur +0.2 across 1 poll testing Marcy Kaptur against Derek Merrin.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics DepartmentC+ · DEM sponsor | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 481 LV | Kaptur +0.0 | Kaptur +0.2 | 0.19 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Kaptur 72, Merrin 29.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Kaptur +0.2 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Kaptur +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Kaptur +4.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Kaptur +2.2 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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