Data status
A plain look at how current the numbers on this site are. If something here looks wrong, the forecast above it may be too.
Up to date. The forecast was last refreshed Oct 18, 9:14 PM ET (less than an hour ago). It refreshes several times a day; GitHub sometimes starts a refresh late.
Forecast date Oct 19 · 15 days to the election · model 0.2.0 · 40,000 simulations · default view: Polls + fundamentals.
National polls
| Average | Polls in last 30 days | Latest poll ended | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generic ballot | 13 | Oct 12 | Healthy. 9 entered from pollsters’ releases. |
| Presidential approval | 12 | Oct 12 | Healthy. 10 entered from pollsters’ releases. |
Our main poll feed stopped carrying most national polls after June, so those are added from each pollster’s own release. Details.
Where polling is thin
| Races | Contested | No polls | One or two polls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | 35 | 11 | 8 |
| Governor | 36 | 9 | 10 |
| House | 421 | 370 | 46 |
Races with no polls rest on partisan lean, the national environment, incumbency and fundraising. Their odds carry more uncertainty than the number suggests.
Data sources in the latest refresh
| Source | Fresh | Reused from cache | Source down (older copy used) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Census demographics | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| FEC fundraising | 0 | 219 | 0 |
| Kalshi | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Polymarket | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| VoteHub polls | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wikidata (websites) | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Wikipedia (races, candidates, bios) | 0 | 331 | 0 |
“Reused from cache” means the source was asked recently, so we didn’t ask again. If a source is down, the last good copy is used and counted in the last column.