Governor races

36 races, closest first. Odds are the share of simulations each side wins. 7 likely to flip · 2 more could (to D 6, to R 1)

Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R

Solid ≥95 in 100 · Likely 75–95 · Lean 60–75 · Toss-up under 60 for either side · Independent favored · Likely to flip (50+ in 100 to change parties) · Could flip (25–49)

36 shown

Governor races
Race	Rating	Non-Republican side	Republican side	Projected margin	Polls
Georgia · runoff 40 in 100	Toss-up Likely flip · R → D	Keisha Lance Bottoms 54 in 100	Rick Jackson 46 in 100	Bottoms +0.4	9
Nevada	Lean D Likely flip · R → D	Aaron Ford 65 in 100	Joe Lombardo 35 in 100	Ford +1.7	2
Nebraska	Lean R Could flip · R → D	Lynne Walz 32 in 100	Jim Pillen 68 in 100	Pillen +2.4	1
Vermont	Lean D Likely flip · R → D	Amanda Janoo 70 in 100	Phil Scott 30 in 100	Janoo +3.2	3
Texas	Lean R Could flip · R → D	Gina Hinojosa 29 in 100	Greg Abbott 71 in 100	Abbott +2.0	23
Oregon	Likely D	Tina Kotek 76 in 100	Christine Drazan 24 in 100	Kotek +3.0	2
Florida	Likely R	David Jolly 23 in 100	Byron Donalds 77 in 100	Donalds +2.9	11
Arkansas	Likely R	Fredrick Love 16 in 100	Sarah Huckabee Sanders 84 in 100	Sanders +13.3	none
Kansas	Likely R Likely flip · D → R	Cindy Holscher 15 in 100	Ty Masterson 85 in 100	Masterson +4.2	3
Ohio	Likely D Likely flip · R → D	Amy Acton 87 in 100	Vivek Ramaswamy 13 in 100	Acton +4.2	10
Maine	Likely D	Hannah Pingree 88 in 100	Robert B. Charles 12 in 100	Pingree +15.6	none
Oklahoma	Likely R	Cyndi Munson 12 in 100	Mike Mazzei 88 in 100	Mazzei +15.9	none
South Carolina	Likely R	Jermaine Johnson 12 in 100	Alan Wilson 88 in 100	Wilson +6.0	1
South Dakota	Likely R	Dan Ahlers 11 in 100	Larry Rhoden 89 in 100	Rhoden +16.9	none
Wisconsin	Likely D	David Crowley 89 in 100	Tom Tiffany 11 in 100	Crowley +4.6	9
Colorado	Likely D	Phil Weiser 92 in 100	Victor Marx 8 in 100	Weiser +18.6	none
Idaho	Likely R	Terri Pickens 8 in 100	Brad Little 92 in 100	Little +19.5	none
Wyoming	Solid R	Kenneth Casner 3 in 100	Eric Barlow 97 in 100	Barlow +24.9	none
Iowa	Solid D Likely flip · R → D	Rob Sand 97 in 100	Zach Lahn 3 in 100	Sand +7.1	15
Alaska	Solid D Likely flip · R → D	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 98 in 100	Bernadette Wilson 2 in 100	Kreiss-Tomkins +9.6	3
New Hampshire	Solid R	Cinde Warmington 2 in 100	Kelly Ayotte 98 in 100	Ayotte +8.1	7
Tennessee	Solid R	Jerri Green 2 in 100	Marsha Blackburn 98 in 100	Blackburn +9.0	2
Alabama	Solid R	Doug Jones 2 in 100	Tommy Tuberville 98 in 100	Tuberville +9.5	2
Minnesota	Solid D	Amy Klobuchar 99 in 100	Lisa Demuth 1 in 100	Klobuchar +9.3	4
Michigan	Solid D	Jocelyn Benson 99 in 100	John James 1 in 100	Benson +8.9	16
Arizona	Solid D	Katie Hobbs 99 in 100	Andy Biggs 1 in 100	Hobbs +9.0	10
Hawaii	Solid D	Josh Green 99 in 100	Gary Cordery 1 in 100	Green +33.1	none
Massachusetts	Solid D	Maura Healey >99 in 100	Mike Minogue <1 in 100	Healey +36.0	none
New Mexico	Solid D	Deb Haaland >99 in 100	Gregg Hull <1 in 100	Haaland +17.1	1
New York	Solid D	Kathy Hochul >99 in 100	Bruce Blakeman <1 in 100	Hochul +15.3	10
Connecticut	Solid D	Ned Lamont >99 in 100	Ryan Fazio <1 in 100	Lamont +17.9	7
Illinois	Solid D	JB Pritzker >99 in 100	Darren Bailey <1 in 100	Pritzker +20.5	1
Pennsylvania	Solid D	Josh Shapiro >99 in 100	Stacy Garrity <1 in 100	Shapiro +21.3	9
California	Solid D	Xavier Becerra >99 in 100	Steve Hilton <1 in 100	Becerra +22.2	4
Maryland	Solid D	Wes Moore 100 in 100	Dan Cox 0 in 100	Moore +28.5	2
Rhode Island	Solid D	Helena Foulkes 100 in 100	Aaron Guckian 0 in 100	Foulkes +26.5	1