Governor · open seat · All Alabama races

Alabama

Solid R

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Doug Jones

Democratic

2 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Tommy Tuberville

Republican

98 in 100

Tommy Tuberville wins in 98 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Tommy Tuberville +9.2 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tommy Tuberville +12.9. Polls get 90% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Tuberville +9.5; 80 in 100 fall between Tuberville +15.1 and Tuberville +4.0.

The candidates

Doug Jones

Democratic · American politician and attorney (born 1954)

Gordon Douglas Jones is an American politician and attorney who served as a United States senator from Alabama from 2018 to 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, Jones was previously the United States attorney for the Northern District of Alabama from 1997 to 2001. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Tommy Tuberville

Republican · American politician and football coach (born 1954)

Thomas Hawley Tuberville is an American politician and retired college football coach and sports broadcaster who is the senior United States senator from Alabama, a seat he has held since 2021. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Tuberville +9.2 across 2 polls testing Doug Jones against Tommy Tuberville.

Tuberville +1.2 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
RMG ResearchA− · REP sponsor for Alabama Policy Action	Sep 21–Sep 25	800 RV	Tuberville +13.0	Tuberville +10.5	0.51
yes. every kid.	Jul 8–Jul 11	601 LV	Tuberville +8.0	Tuberville +6.5	0.25
CygnalA+ · REP sponsor	Nov 12–Nov 13	605 LV	Tuberville +19.0	Tuberville +16.7	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Tuberville +6 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Jones 2, Tuberville 98.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 90% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Tuberville +9.2	±5.1 sampling range; effective 1.8 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+15.0	roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Tuberville +12.9	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Tuberville +20.4	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Tuberville +9.5	±4.4 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Doug Jones 2 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Doug Jones 2 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Doug Jones <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Likely RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #23 of 36