Governor · open seat · All Tennessee races

Tennessee

Solid R

Compare

Jerri Green

Democratic

2 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Marsha Blackburn

Republican

98 in 100

Marsha Blackburn wins in 98 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Marsha Blackburn +8.7 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Marsha Blackburn +11.4. Polls get 90% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Blackburn +9.0; 80 in 100 fall between Blackburn +14.5 and Blackburn +3.4.

The candidates

Marsha Blackburn

Republican · American politician (born 1952)

Mary Marsha Blackburn is an American politician and businesswoman serving as the senior United States senator from Tennessee. Blackburn was first elected to the Senate in 2018. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Jerri Green

Democratic

No biography on file yet.

Misam Abidi

Independent

Santiago Asconape

Independent

Dean Brewer

Independent

Ray Brown

Independent

Taylor Hafley

Independent

David Hatley

Independent

Wendell Jackson

Independent

Charles Van Morgan

Independent

Eddie Lee Murphy

Independent

Lauren Pinkston

Independent

Karl Smithson

Independent

L. Webb Taylor

Independent

Robert Vick

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

Polls

The polling average stands at Blackburn +8.7 across 2 polls testing Jerri Green against Marsha Blackburn.

Green +12.3 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
TargetSmartC+ · DEM sponsor for The Progress Fund	Sep 9–Sep 12	600 LV	Blackburn +9.0	Blackburn +8.1	0.25
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for Beacon Center of Tennessee	Aug 15–Aug 26	1,149 RV	Blackburn +13.0	Blackburn +9.0	0.51
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for Beacon Center	Apr 20–Apr 27	1,157 RV	Blackburn +24.0	Blackburn +19.5	0.00
Quantus Insights · REP sponsor	Aug 5–Aug 7	600 RV	Blackburn +21.0	Blackburn +17.0	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Green +2 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Green 2, Blackburn 98.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 90% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Blackburn +8.7	±5.1 sampling range; effective 1.8 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+14.0	roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Blackburn +11.4	±14 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Blackburn +20.4	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Blackburn +9.0	±4.4 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Jerri Green 3 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Jerri Green 2 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jerri Green <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Likely RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Term-limited

Governor races, closest first · this is #22 of 36

Tennessee

Where the result could land ?

The candidates

Polls ?

Chance of winning over time

What’s driving the forecast

All three versions

Published ratings

County map

Rules and notes

Where the result could land

Polls