Bellwether vs. expert ratings
Professional race raters publish a category for each contest: solid, likely, lean or toss-up. Here are those ratings next to our odds. Our rating uses the same scale: solid is 95 in 100 or better, likely 75–95, lean 60–75, toss-up under 60 for either side. Of 71 Senate and governor races they rate, our category differs from the experts’ middle rating in 30 (25 sit toward D, 5 toward R).
Ratings are collected from Wikipedia’s 2026 election pages, which cite each publisher. A “step” is one category (for example lean to likely). “Toward D” or “toward R” says which way our rating sits relative to the experts’ middle rating. Neither is a claim that one is right: ratings are judgment, ours is a model, and both can be wrong. House ratings are not collected here.
Senate
| Race | Bellwether | Experts’ middle | Compared | Cook | Sabato | Inside Elections | Split Ticket | Split Ticket/FPO | Silver Bulletin | DDHQ | The Economist | RCP | Fox News |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Likely flip · R → D | Toss-up Hamilton 52 in 100 | Toss-up 10 raters | Same | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R |
| Iowa Likely flip · R → D | Toss-up Turek 53 in 100 | Toss-up 10 raters | Same | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup |
| Nebraska Could flip · R → I | Lean R Osborn 40 in 100 | Lean R 10 raters | Same | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| South Carolina Could flip · R → D | Lean R Andrews 38 in 100 | Lean R 10 raters | Same | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R |
| Alaska Likely flip · R → D | Lean D Peltola 66 in 100 | Lean D 10 raters | Same | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Texas Likely flip · R → D | Lean D Talarico 69 in 100 | Toss-up 10 raters | 1 step toward D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup |
| Maine Likely flip · R → D | Likely D Jackson 81 in 100 | Toss-up 10 raters | 2 steps toward D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup |
| Ohio (special) Likely flip · R → D | Likely D Brown 82 in 100 | Toss-up 10 raters | 2 steps toward D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup |
| Louisiana | Likely R Davis 13 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | 1 step toward D | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Minnesota | Likely D Flanagan 88 in 100 | Likely D 10 raters | Same | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D |
| Michigan | Likely D El-Sayed 88 in 100 | Lean D 10 raters | 1 step toward D | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup |
| Florida (special) | Likely R Nixon 10 in 100 | Likely R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Solid R |
| Mississippi | Likely R Colom 10 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | 1 step toward D | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Idaho | Solid R Achilles 5 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Virginia | Solid D Warner 97 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| New Hampshire | Solid D Pappas 98 in 100 | Likely D 10 raters | 1 step toward D | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D |
| Kentucky | Solid R Booker 2 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| New Jersey | Solid D Booker 98 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| Colorado | Solid D Hickenlooper 99 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| Oklahoma | Solid R Thomas 1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| South Dakota | Solid R Bengs 1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Georgia | Solid D Ossoff 99 in 100 | Likely D 10 raters | 1 step toward D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D |
| North Carolina Likely flip · R → D | Solid D Cooper 99 in 100 | Likely D 10 raters | 1 step toward D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| Arkansas | Solid R Shoffner <1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Oregon | Solid D Merkley >99 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| Illinois | Solid D Stratton >99 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| Delaware | Solid D Coons >99 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| New Mexico | Solid D Luján >99 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D |
| Tennessee | Solid R Bradshaw <1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| West Virginia | Solid R Anderson <1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Wyoming | Solid R Byrd <1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Montana | Solid R Bankhead <1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R |
| Alabama | Solid R Wess <1 in 100 | Solid R 10 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R |
| Massachusetts | Solid D Markey >99 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | Solid D Reed >99 in 100 | Solid D 10 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D |
Governors
| Race | Bellwether | Experts’ middle | Compared | Cook | Sabato | Inside Elections | Split Ticket | Split Ticket/FPO | Silver Bulletin | DDHQ | The Economist | RCP | Fox News |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Likely flip · R → D | Toss-up Bottoms 54 in 100 | Toss-up 7 raters | Same | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | — | — | Lean D | Tossup | — | Tossup | Tossup |
| Nevada Likely flip · R → D | Lean D Ford 65 in 100 | Toss-up 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt R | — | — | Tossup | Tossup | — | Tossup | Tossup |
| Nebraska Could flip · R → D | Lean R Walz 32 in 100 | Likely R 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | — | — | Likely R | Likely R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| Vermont Likely flip · R → D | Lean D Janoo 70 in 100 | Likely R 7 raters | 3 steps toward D | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | — | — | Lean R | Likely R | — | Lean R | Likely R |
| Texas Could flip · R → D | Lean R Hinojosa 29 in 100 | Lean R 7 raters | Same | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | — | — | Lean R | Lean R | — | Tossup | Lean R |
| Oregon | Likely D Kotek 76 in 100 | Lean D 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | — | — | Likely D | Likely D | — | Tossup | Lean D |
| Florida | Likely R Jolly 23 in 100 | Lean R 7 raters | 1 step toward R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | — | — | Lean R | Lean R | — | Tossup | Likely R |
| Arkansas | Likely R Love 16 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Safe R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| Kansas Likely flip · D → R | Likely R Holscher 15 in 100 | Lean R 7 raters | 1 step toward R | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R | — | — | Lean R | Lean R | — | Tossup | Lean R |
| Ohio Likely flip · R → D | Likely D Acton 87 in 100 | Toss-up 7 raters | 2 steps toward D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | — | — | Lean D | Tossup | — | Tossup | Tossup |
| Maine | Likely D Pingree 88 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | 1 step toward R | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Likely D | — | Likely D | Solid D |
| Oklahoma | Likely R Munson 12 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | — | — | Likely R | Safe R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| South Carolina | Likely R Johnson 12 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Lean R | — | Likely R | Solid R |
| South Dakota | Likely R Ahlers 11 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Safe R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| Wisconsin | Likely D Crowley 89 in 100 | Toss-up 7 raters | 2 steps toward D | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | — | — | Lean D | Lean D | — | Tossup | Tossup |
| Colorado | Likely D Weiser 92 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | 1 step toward R | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Likely D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| Idaho | Likely R Pickens 8 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Safe R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| Wyoming | Solid R Casner 3 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Safe R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| Iowa Likely flip · R → D | Solid D Sand 97 in 100 | Lean D 7 raters | 2 steps toward D | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | — | — | Likely D | Lean D | — | Lean D | Lean D |
| Alaska Likely flip · R → D | Solid D Kreiss-Tomkins 98 in 100 | Lean D 7 raters | 2 steps toward D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | — | — | Likely D | Tossup | — | Lean D | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | Solid R Warmington 2 in 100 | Likely R 7 raters | 1 step toward R | Likely R | Likely R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Lean R | — | Lean R | Likely R |
| Tennessee | Solid R Green 2 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Likely R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| Alabama | Solid R Jones 2 in 100 | Solid R 7 raters | Same | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | — | — | Solid R | Likely R | — | Solid R | Solid R |
| Minnesota | Solid D Klobuchar 99 in 100 | Likely D 7 raters | 1 step toward D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | — | — | Solid D | Likely D | — | Likely D | Likely D |
| Michigan | Solid D Benson 99 in 100 | Lean D 7 raters | 2 steps toward D | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | — | — | Likely D | Likely D | — | Lean D | Lean D |
| Arizona | Solid D Hobbs 99 in 100 | Lean D 7 raters | 2 steps toward D | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | — | — | Likely D | Lean D | — | Lean D | Lean D |
| Hawaii | Solid D Green 99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Safe D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| Massachusetts | Solid D Healey >99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Safe D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| New Mexico | Solid D Haaland >99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | — | — | Solid D | Likely D | — | Lean D | Solid D |
| New York | Solid D Hochul >99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | — | — | Solid D | Likely D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| Connecticut | Solid D Lamont >99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Likely D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| Illinois | Solid D Pritzker >99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Likely D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| Pennsylvania | Solid D Shapiro >99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Safe D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| California | Solid D Becerra >99 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Safe D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| Maryland | Solid D Moore 100 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Safe D | — | Solid D | Solid D |
| Rhode Island | Solid D Foulkes 100 in 100 | Solid D 7 raters | Same | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | — | — | Solid D | Safe D | — | Solid D | Solid D |