Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 81 in 100 that it changes hands.
Troy Jackson wins in 81 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Troy Jackson +3.0 across 14 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Troy Jackson +5.6. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Jackson +3.3; 80 in 100 fall between Collins +1.6 and Jackson +8.2.
Susan Margaret Collins is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator for Maine since 1997. A member of the Republican Party, she is Maine's longest-serving member of Congress and the longest-serving Republican woman in the Senate. Wikipedia
Troy Dale Jackson is an American politician and logger. He served in the Maine Senate from 2008 to 2014 and from 2016 to 2024, representing parts of northern Aroostook County. He was the Senate president and majority leader from 2018 to 2024. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Jackson +3.0 across 14 polls testing Troy Jackson against Susan Collins.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantageB− | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | Jackson +2.0 | Jackson +2.9 | 1.01 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and GovernmentA+ | Sep 30–Oct 5 | 800 LV | Jackson +5.0 | Jackson +4.3 | 0.81 |
| Marist University | Oct 1–Oct 4 | 1,505 RV | Jackson +4.0 | Jackson +1.8 | 0.63 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 27–Oct 1 | 400 LV | Jackson +4.0 | Jackson +4.5 | 0.29 |
| co/efficientB | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,240 LV | Collins +2.0 | Jackson +1.8 | 0.62 |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA for Portland Press Herald | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 619 LV | Collins +3.0 | Collins +1.4 | 0.36 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchB for AARP | Sep 20–Sep 22 | 982 LV | Jackson +3.0 | Jackson +3.0 | 0.39 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 1,312 LV | Jackson +4.0 | Jackson +4.4 | 0.32 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 621 LV | Collins +0.7 | Jackson +1.1 | 0.20 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGovA | Aug 28–Sep 14 | 650 LV | Jackson +5.0 | Jackson +7.0 | 0.21 |
| YouGovA− | Sep 2–Sep 8 | 1,335 LV | Jackson +4.0 | Jackson +5.4 | 0.29 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News | Aug 6–Aug 10 | 1,000 RV | Jackson +2.0 | Jackson +2.6 | 0.09 |
| Hart Research AssociatesB+ · DEM sponsor for Senate Majority PAC | Jul 27–Aug 1 | 802 LV | Jackson +4.0 | Jackson +5.9 | 0.02 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jul 15–Jul 20 | 1,178 LV | Jackson +3.0 | Jackson +4.7 | 0.02 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Jackson 81, Collins 19.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Jackson +3.0 | ±2.3 sampling range; effective 8.9 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+4.0 | roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Collins +8.8 | In 2020 they ran 17.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Collins +3.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Jackson +5.6 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Jackson +2.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Jackson +3.3 | ±3.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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