U.S. Senate · special election · All Ohio races

Ohio (special)

Likely DLikely flip · R → D

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 82 in 100 that it changes hands.

Sherrod Brown

Democratic

82 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Jon Husted

Republican · incumbent

18 in 100

Sherrod Brown wins in 82 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Sherrod Brown +4.3 across 13 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jon Husted +2.1. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Brown +3.5; 80 in 100 fall between Husted +1.4 and Brown +8.5.

The candidates

Sherrod Brown

Democratic · American politician (born 1952)

Sherrod Campbell Brown is an American politician who served from 2007 to 2025 as a United States senator from Ohio. Previously, he served in the Ohio House of Representatives from 1975 to 1983, was Ohio secretary of state from 1983 to 1991, and was the U.S. Wikipedia

Raised

$61.7M

Cash on hand

$4.9M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Jon HustedIncumbent

Republican · American politician (born 1967)

Jon Allen Husted is an American politician serving since 2025 as the junior United States senator from Ohio. A member of the Republican Party, he served from 2019 to 2025 as the 66th lieutenant governor of Ohio and from 2011 to 2019 as the 50th Ohio secretary of state. Wikipedia

Raised

$19.2M

Cash on hand

$8.9M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Greg Levy

Independent

William Redpath

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Brown +4.3 across 13 polls testing Sherrod Brown against Jon Husted.

Brown +6.5 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Bowling Green State University/YouGovA−	Sep 29–Oct 9	1,000 LV	Brown +6.0	Brown +5.1	0.76
co/efficientB · REP sponsor	Oct 5–Oct 6	925 LV	Husted +1.0	Brown +2.7	0.23
co/efficientB · REP sponsor	Oct 5–Oct 6	925 LV	Husted +1.0	Brown +2.7	0.23
CNN/SSRSB−	Sep 29–Oct 5	760 LV	Brown +6.0	Brown +5.5	0.45
InsiderAdvantageB−	Sep 28–Sep 29	1,200 LV	Brown +1.0	Brown +2.0	0.34
Marist University	Sep 24–Sep 27	1,298 RV	Brown +8.0	Brown +5.7	0.39
Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project	Sep 26–Sep 27	680 LV	Brown +3.7	Brown +3.0	0.29
Quantus Insights	Sep 21–Sep 23	695 LV	Brown +0.5	Brown +1.6	0.25
Trafalgar GroupB+ · REP sponsor	Sep 14–Sep 16	1,085 LV	Brown +3.0	Brown +4.3	0.15
InsiderAdvantageB−	Sep 8–Sep 9	1,200 LV	Brown +5.4	Brown +7.4	0.14
Wedgewood Polls	Aug 11–Aug 13	800 LV	Brown +4.0	Brown +5.7	0.04
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Aug 6–Aug 10	1,008 RV	Brown +8.0	Brown +8.6	0.06
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Jun 15–Jun 28	601 LV	Husted +3.0	Brown +0.4	0.01
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchC+ for AARP	Jun 14–Jun 16	800 LV	Brown +3.0	Brown +4.6	0.00
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	May 28–Jun 1	1,015 RV	Brown +8.0	Brown +8.9	0.00
Bowling Green State University/YouGovA−	Apr 7–Apr 14	1,000 RV	Husted +3.0	Husted +1.5	0.00
Echelon InsightsA− for NetChoice	Apr 3–Apr 9	—	Husted +6.0	Husted +2.5	0.00
Quantus Insights	Mar 13–Mar 14	925 LV	Husted +2.0	Brown +1.9	0.00
OnMessageC for Insurance Watchdog Coalition	Mar 3–Mar 8	600 LV	Brown +2.0	Brown +4.7	0.00
EMC ResearchC for Ohio Environmental Council	Feb 10–Feb 22	1,343 LV	Brown +4.0	Brown +5.8	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Dec 6–Dec 8	850 RV	Husted +2.5	Brown +1.4	0.00
Bowling Green State University/YouGovA−	Oct 2–Oct 14	800 RV	Brown +1.0	Brown +4.6	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Aug 18–Aug 19	1,000 RV	Husted +5.8	Husted +1.0	0.00
Bowling Green State University/YouGovA−	Apr 18–Apr 24	800 RV	Husted +3.0	Brown +0.5	0.00
Bowling Green State University/YouGovA−	Feb 14–Feb 21	800 RV	Husted +6.0	Brown +0.1	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Brown +36 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Brown 82, Husted 18.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Brown +4.3	±2.4 sampling range; effective 8.2 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+5.0	roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	Husted +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Husted +2.1	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Brown +2.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Brown +3.5	±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Sherrod Brown 86 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals: Sherrod Brown 82 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Sherrod Brown 81 in 100 (Likely D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: TossupDDHQ: TossupThe Economist: Lean D (flip)Split Ticket/FPO: Lean D (flip)Fox News: TossupInside Elections: TossupRCP: TossupSabato: TossupSilver Bulletin: Lean D (flip)Split Ticket: Lean D (flip)

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 7:30 pm Eastern.
Last election: Appointed (2025)
Interim appointee nominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #8 of 35