U.S. Senate · open seat · All Louisiana races

Louisiana

Likely R

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Jamie Davis

Democratic

13 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Julia Letlow

Republican

87 in 100

Julia Letlow wins in 87 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Julia Letlow +13.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Letlow +12.8; 80 in 100 fall between Letlow +27.4 and Davis +1.4.

The candidates

Jamie Davis

Democratic

Raised

$4.0M

Cash on hand

$942K

Through 2026-09-30

No biography on file yet.

Julia Letlow

Republican · American politician (born 1981)

Julia Janelle Letlow is an American politician and academic administrator serving as the U.S. representative for Louisiana's 5th congressional district since 2021. Letlow is the first Republican woman to represent Louisiana in the House. Wikipedia

Raised

$7.0M

Cash on hand

$1.4M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

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Polls

No public polls have tested Jamie Davis against Julia Letlow yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Davis +4 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Davis 13, Letlow 88.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+11.0	roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Letlow +13.0	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Letlow +18.7	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Letlow +13.0	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Jamie Davis 13 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Jamie Davis 13 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jamie Davis <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Likely RThe Economist: Likely RSplit Ticket/FPO: Likely RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 59.32% R
Incumbent lost renomination

Senate races, closest first · this is #9 of 35