U.S. Senate · open seat · All Minnesota races

Minnesota

Likely D

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Peggy Flanagan

DFL

88 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Michele Tafoya

Republican

12 in 100

Peggy Flanagan wins in 88 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Peggy Flanagan +3.0 across 6 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Peggy Flanagan +15.7. Polls get 88% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Flanagan +4.5; 80 in 100 fall between Tafoya +0.4 and Flanagan +9.5.

The candidates

Peggy Flanagan

DFL · American politician and Ojibwe activist (born 1979)

Margaret Flanagan is an American politician and Ojibwe activist serving since 2019 as the 50th lieutenant governor of Minnesota. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), Flanagan served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. Wikipedia

Raised

$10.3M

Cash on hand

$1.5M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Michele Tafoya

Republican · American former sports broadcaster (born 1964)

Michele Joan Tafoya is an American former sports broadcaster. Born in Manhattan Beach, California, Tafoya graduated from the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Southern California. From 2011 to 2022, she worked primarily as a sideline reporter for NBC Sunday Night Football. Wikipedia

Raised

$9.7M

Cash on hand

$2.1M

Through 2026-09-30

Marisa Simonetti

Independent

Rebecca Whiting

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

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Polls

The polling average stands at Flanagan +3.0 across 6 polls testing Peggy Flanagan against Michele Tafoya.

Tafoya +4.4 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
SurveyUSAA− for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)	Oct 8–Oct 12	718 LV	Flanagan +3.0	Flanagan +2.8	0.55
GQRB− · DEM sponsor for Senate Majority PAC	Oct 1–Oct 4	800 LV	Flanagan +8.0	Flanagan +3.8	0.30
Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project	Sep 29–Sep 30	622 LV	Flanagan +2.0	Flanagan +1.5	0.41
SurveyUSAA− for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)	Sep 9–Sep 14	654 LV	Flanagan +0.0	Flanagan +1.1	0.19
Quantus Insights	Sep 8–Sep 10	720 LV	Flanagan +3.8	Flanagan +6.0	0.22
SurveyUSAA− for KSTP-TV (St. Paul), KAAL-TV (Austin), WDIO-DT (Duluth)	Aug 13–Aug 17	661 LV	Flanagan +5.0	Flanagan +6.2	0.08
Emerson CollegeA−	Feb 6–Feb 8	1,000 LV	Flanagan +6.5	Flanagan +9.6	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Flanagan 88, Tafoya 12.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 88% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Flanagan +3.0	±3.2 sampling range; effective 4.7 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+3.0	roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Flanagan +15.7	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Flanagan +7.5	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Flanagan +4.5	±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Peggy Flanagan 78 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals: Peggy Flanagan 88 in 100 (Likely D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Peggy Flanagan 92 in 100 (Likely D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Likely DDDHQ: Likely DThe Economist: Lean DSplit Ticket/FPO: Likely DFox News: Lean DInside Elections: Lean DRCP: TossupSabato: Lean DSilver Bulletin: Likely DSplit Ticket: Likely D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 48.74% D
Incumbent retiring

Senate races, closest first · this is #10 of 35