House races
435 races, closest first. Odds are the share of simulations each side wins. 30 likely to flip · 14 more could (to D 26, to R 4)
Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R
Solid ≥95 in 100 · Likely 75–95 · Lean 60–75 · Toss-up under 60 for either side · Independent favored · Likely to flip (50+ in 100 to change parties) · Could flip (25–49)
67 shown
| Race | Rating | Last 30 days | Non-Republican side | Republican side | Projected margin | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama District 2 | Toss-up Likely flip · D → R | Shomari Figures 48 in 100 | Rhett Marques 52 in 100 | Marques +0.3 | none | |
| Wisconsin District 1 | Toss-up Likely flip · R → D | Mitchell Berman 54 in 100 | Bryan Steil 46 in 100 | Berman +0.3 | 2 | |
| Montana District 1 | Toss-up Could flip · R → D | Sam Forstag 46 in 100 | Aaron Flint 54 in 100 | Flint +0.4 | 1 | |
| Michigan District 4 | Toss-up Could flip · R → D | Sean McCann 44 in 100 | Bill Huizenga 56 in 100 | Huizenga +0.9 | none | |
| Florida District 7 | Toss-up Likely flip · R → D | Bale Dalton 56 in 100 | Ryan Elijah 44 in 100 | Dalton +0.8 | none | |
| New York District 1 | Toss-up Could flip · R → D | Chris Gallant 42 in 100 | Nick LaLota 58 in 100 | LaLota +1.1 | none | |
| Pennsylvania District 1 | Toss-up Could flip · R → D | Bob Harvie 42 in 100 | Brian Fitzpatrick 58 in 100 | Fitzpatrick +0.8 | 1 | |
| Maine District 2 | Toss-up Could flip · D → R | Matthew Dunlap 60 in 100 | Paul LePage 40 in 100 | Dunlap +1.4 | none | |
| Nebraska District 1 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Chris Backemeyer 37 in 100 | Mike Flood 63 in 100 | Flood +1.2 | 1 | |
| Missouri District 2 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Fred Wellman 36 in 100 | Ann Wagner 64 in 100 | Wagner +1.4 | 1 | |
| Texas District 35 | Lean D | Johnny Garcia 64 in 100 | Carlos De La Cruz 36 in 100 | Garcia +1.4 | 1 | |
| North Carolina District 11 | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | Jamie Ager 64 in 100 | Jennifer Balkcom 36 in 100 | Ager +2.1 | none | |
| Pennsylvania District 8 | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | Paige Cognetti 65 in 100 | Rob Bresnahan 35 in 100 | Cognetti +1.5 | 1 | |
| Florida District 9 | Lean R Likely flip · D → R | Darren Soto 35 in 100 | Dan Green 65 in 100 | Green +2.2 | none | |
| Virginia District 1 | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | Shannon Taylor 65 in 100 | Rob Wittman 35 in 100 | Taylor +1.5 | 1 | |
| Ohio District 10 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Kristina Knickerbocker 34 in 100 | Mike Turner 66 in 100 | Turner +2.4 | none | |
| Minnesota District 1 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Jake Johnson 32 in 100 | Brad Finstad 68 in 100 | Finstad +1.6 | 2 | |
| Arkansas District 2 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Chris Jones 32 in 100 | French Hill 68 in 100 | Hill +1.8 | 1 | |
| Ohio District 15 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Don Leonard 29 in 100 | Mike Carey 71 in 100 | Carey +2.0 | 2 | |
| Ohio District 9 | Lean D Could flip · D → R | Marcy Kaptur 72 in 100 | Derek Merrin 28 in 100 | Kaptur +2.2 | 1 | |
| Colorado District 5 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Jessica Killin 27 in 100 | Jeff Crank 73 in 100 | Crank +3.4 | none | |
| Kentucky District 6 | Lean D Likely flip · R → D | Zach Dembo 73 in 100 | Ralph Alvarado 27 in 100 | Dembo +2.2 | 3 | |
| South Carolina District 1 | Lean R Could flip · R → D | Nancy Lacore 26 in 100 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt 74 in 100 | Honeycutt +2.5 | 1 | |
| Florida District 22 | Likely D | Pia Dandiya 76 in 100 | Casey Askar 24 in 100 | Dandiya +2.7 | 1 | |
| Michigan District 10 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Christina Hines 77 in 100 | Mike Bouchard Jr. 23 in 100 | Hines +2.8 | 1 | |
| Iowa District 2 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Lindsay James 77 in 100 | Joe Mitchell 23 in 100 | James +2.9 | 1 | |
| Arizona District 2 | Likely R | Jonathan Nez 23 in 100 | Eli Crane 77 in 100 | Crane +4.3 | none | |
| Iowa District 3 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Sarah Trone Garriott 78 in 100 | Zach Nunn 22 in 100 | Garriott +4.3 | none | |
| Florida District 27 | Likely R | Eliott Rodriguez 20 in 100 | María Elvira Salazar 80 in 100 | Salazar +3.3 | 1 | |
| Colorado District 3 | Likely R | Dwayne Romero 18 in 100 | Jeff Hurd 82 in 100 | Hurd +5.1 | none | |
| Washington District 5 | Likely R | Carmela Conroy 18 in 100 | Michael Baumgartner 82 in 100 | Baumgartner +5.2 | none | |
| Florida District 16 | Likely R | Kelly Kirschner 18 in 100 | Sydney Gruters 82 in 100 | Gruters +3.6 | 1 | |
| Florida District 13 | Likely R | Leela Gray 17 in 100 | Anna Paulina Luna 83 in 100 | Luna +3.6 | 2 | |
| Texas District 15 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Bobby Pulido 83 in 100 | Monica De La Cruz 17 in 100 | Pulido +3.4 | 2 | |
| New Jersey District 2 | Likely R | Zack Mullock 17 in 100 | Jeff Van Drew 83 in 100 | Drew +5.3 | none | |
| Texas District 23 | Likely R | Katy Padilla Stout 16 in 100 | Brandon Herrera 84 in 100 | Herrera +5.6 | none | |
| Pennsylvania District 10 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Janelle Stelson 84 in 100 | Scott Perry 16 in 100 | Stelson +3.9 | 1 | |
| Nevada District 2 | Likely R | Teresa Benitez-Thompson 15 in 100 | David Flippo 85 in 100 | Flippo +5.8 | none | |
| New York District 17 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Cait Conley 85 in 100 | Mike Lawler 15 in 100 | Conley +3.7 | 3 | |
| Florida District 14 | Likely D | Kathy Castor 85 in 100 | Mike Beltran 15 in 100 | Castor +5.9 | none | |
| New Jersey District 7 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Rebecca Bennett 85 in 100 | Thomas Kean Jr. 15 in 100 | Bennett +6.0 | none | |
| Alaska at-large | Likely R | Eric Hafner 14 in 100 | Nick Begich III 86 in 100 | Begich +6.0 | none | |
| Virginia District 2 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Elaine Luria 86 in 100 | Jen Kiggans 14 in 100 | Luria +4.1 | 1 | |
| Colorado District 8 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Manny Rutinel 86 in 100 | Gabe Evans 14 in 100 | Rutinel +6.2 | none | |
| Florida District 4 | Likely R | LaShonda Holloway 13 in 100 | Aaron Bean 87 in 100 | Bean +6.5 | none | |
| Michigan District 7 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | William Lawrence 88 in 100 | Tom Barrett 12 in 100 | Lawrence +4.4 | 1 | |
| Florida District 11 | Likely R | James Pericola 11 in 100 | Joe Strada 89 in 100 | Strada +6.9 | none | |
| Tennessee District 9 | Likely R Likely flip · D → R | Justin Pearson 11 in 100 | Brent Taylor 89 in 100 | Taylor +4.8 | 1 | |
| Pennsylvania District 7 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Bob Brooks 90 in 100 | Ryan Mackenzie 10 in 100 | Brooks +4.6 | 2 | |
| Florida District 2 | Likely R | Amanda Green 10 in 100 | Austin Rogers 90 in 100 | Rogers +7.2 | none | |
| Washington District 3 | Likely D | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 90 in 100 | John Braun 10 in 100 | Perez +4.6 | 2 | |
| Iowa District 1 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Christina Bohannan 90 in 100 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks 10 in 100 | Bohannan +5.0 | 1 | |
| Arizona District 6 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | JoAnna Mendoza 90 in 100 | Juan Ciscomani 10 in 100 | Mendoza +7.5 | none | |
| New York District 21 | Likely R | Blake Gendebien 9 in 100 | Anthony Constantino 91 in 100 | Constantino +5.0 | 3 | |
| Virginia District 5 | Likely R | Tom Perriello 9 in 100 | John McGuire 91 in 100 | McGuire +5.1 | 1 | |
| Wisconsin District 3 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Rebecca Cooke 91 in 100 | Derrick Van Orden 9 in 100 | Cooke +5.2 | 1 | |
| Florida District 25 | Likely D | Jared Moskowitz 92 in 100 | Scott Singer 8 in 100 | Moskowitz +7.9 | none | |
| Arizona District 1 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Amish Shah 92 in 100 | Jay Feely 8 in 100 | Shah +5.5 | 1 | |
| Florida District 26 | Likely R | Nicole Locklin 8 in 100 | Mario Díaz-Balart 92 in 100 | Díaz-Balart +8.0 | none | |
| Ohio District 7 | Likely D Likely flip · R → D | Brian Poindexter 92 in 100 | Max Miller 8 in 100 | Poindexter +5.3 | 3 | |
| North Carolina District 3 | Likely R | Raymond Smith Jr. 7 in 100 | Greg Murphy 93 in 100 | Murphy +8.3 | none | |
| Minnesota District 8 | Likely R | Trina Swanson 7 in 100 | Pete Stauber 93 in 100 | Stauber +8.4 | none | |
| Texas District 32 | Likely R | Dan Barrios 6 in 100 | Jace Yarbrough 94 in 100 | Yarbrough +8.6 | none | |
| Georgia District 1 · runoff 9 in 100 | Likely R | Amanda Hollowell 6 in 100 | Jim Kingston 94 in 100 | Kingston +8.8 | none | |
| South Carolina District 2 | Likely R | Zyon Khalifa 6 in 100 | Joe Wilson 94 in 100 | Wilson +8.7 | none | |
| New York District 2 | Likely R | Patrick Halpin 5 in 100 | Andrew Garbarino 95 in 100 | Garbarino +9.2 | none | |
| Georgia District 12 · runoff 8 in 100 | Likely R | Ceretta Smith 5 in 100 | Rick Allen 95 in 100 | Allen +9.3 | none |