Zyon Khalifa
Democratic
Raised$29K
Cash on hand$7K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All South Carolina races
South Carolina District 2
Likely R
Zyon Khalifa
Democratic
6 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Joe Wilson
Republican · incumbent
94 in 100
Joe Wilson wins in 94 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Joe Wilson +8.7.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Wilson +8.6; 80 in 100 fall between Wilson +16.0 and Wilson +1.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Joe WilsonIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1947)
Addison Graves "Joe" Wilson Sr. is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative for South Carolina's 2nd congressional district since 2001. A member of the Republican Party, his district stretches from Columbia to the Georgia–South Carolina border. Wikipedia
Raised$972K
Cash on hand$137K
Through 2026-09-30
Dayna Alane Smith
Workers
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Zyon Khalifa against Joe Wilson yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Khalifa 6, Wilson 94.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Wilson +0.6 | In 2024 they ran 1.3 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Wilson +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Wilson +8.7 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Wilson +8.7 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Zyon Khalifa 6 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Zyon Khalifa 6 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Zyon Khalifa 6 in 100 (Likely R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #65 of 421