Amanda Hollowell
Democratic
Raised$250K
Cash on hand$57K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · open seat · All Georgia races
Georgia District 1
Likely R
Amanda Hollowell
Democratic
6 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jim Kingston
Republican
94 in 100
Jim Kingston wins in 94 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jim Kingston +8.8.
Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: 9 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kingston +8.8; 80 in 100 fall between Kingston +16.0 and Kingston +1.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jim Kingston
Republican
Raised$2.3M
Cash on hand$400K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Amanda Hollowell against Jim Kingston yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hollowell 6, Kingston 94.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Kingston +8.8 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Kingston +8.8 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Amanda Hollowell 6 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Amanda Hollowell 6 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Amanda Hollowell 6 in 100 (Likely R)
Rules and notes
- Georgia requires a majority: if no candidate tops 50%, the top two meet in a runoff.
- Incumbent retiring to run for U.S. Senate
House races, closest first · this is #64 of 421