Dan Barrios
Democratic
Raised$150K
Cash on hand$28K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 32
Likely R
Dan Barrios
Democratic
6 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jace Yarbrough
Republican
94 in 100
Jace Yarbrough wins in 94 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jace Yarbrough +8.6.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Yarbrough +8.7; 80 in 100 fall between Yarbrough +15.9 and Yarbrough +1.3.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jace Yarbrough
Republican
Raised$1.2M
Cash on hand$293K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Dan Barrios against Jace Yarbrough yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Barrios 7, Yarbrough 94.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Yarbrough +8.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Yarbrough +8.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Dan Barrios 6 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Dan Barrios 6 in 100 (Likely R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Dan Barrios 6 in 100 (Likely R)
Rules and notes
- New representative to be elected
House races, closest first · this is #63 of 421