Pete Stauber wins in 93 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Pete Stauber +8.4.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Stauber +8.4; 80 in 100 fall between Stauber +15.8 and Stauber +1.2.
Peter Allen Stauber is an American politician, former minor-league hockey player, and retired law enforcement officer from Minnesota serving as the United States representative for Minnesota's 8th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, Stauber has represented the district since 2019. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Trina Swanson against Pete Stauber yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Swanson 7, Stauber 93.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Swanson +1.1 | In 2024 they ran 2.1 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Stauber +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Stauber +8.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Stauber +8.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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