Greg Murphy wins in 93 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Greg Murphy +8.3.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Murphy +8.3; 80 in 100 fall between Murphy +15.7 and Murphy +1.1.
Gregory Francis Murphy is an American politician and urologist representing North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2019. He served as a representative in the North Carolina General Assembly from 2015 to 2019. Murphy is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Raymond Edward Smith Jr. is an American politician and Army veteran who served in the North Carolina House of Representatives for the 21st district from 2019 to 2023. He is the Democratic nominee for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 election. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Raymond Smith Jr. against Greg Murphy yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Smith 7, Murphy 93.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Murphy +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Murphy +8.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Murphy +8.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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