Senate races

35 races, closest first. Odds are the share of simulations each side wins. 7 likely to flip · 2 more could (to D 7, to R 0)

Solid DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSolid R

Solid ≥95 in 100 · Likely 75–95 · Lean 60–75 · Toss-up under 60 for either side · Independent favored · Likely to flip (50+ in 100 to change parties) · Could flip (25–49)

35 shown

Senate races
Race	Rating	Non-Republican side	Republican side	Projected margin	Polls
Kansas	Toss-up Likely flip · R → D	Adam Hamilton 52 in 100	Roger Marshall 48 in 100	Hamilton +0.3	3
Iowa	Toss-up Likely flip · R → D	Josh Turek 53 in 100	Ashley Hinson 47 in 100	Turek +0.3	14
Nebraska	Lean R Could flip · R → I	Dan Osborn (I) 40 in 100	Pete Ricketts 60 in 100	Ricketts +1.1	2
South Carolina	Lean R Could flip · R → D	Annie Andrews 38 in 100	Darline Graham 62 in 100	Graham +1.2	2
Alaska	Lean D Likely flip · R → D	Mary Peltola 66 in 100	Dan S. Sullivan 34 in 100	Peltola +1.6	7
Texas	Lean D Likely flip · R → D	James Talarico 69 in 100	Ken Paxton 31 in 100	Talarico +1.8	26
Maine	Likely D Likely flip · R → D	Troy Jackson 81 in 100	Susan Collins 19 in 100	Jackson +3.3	14
Ohio (special)	Likely D Likely flip · R → D	Sherrod Brown 82 in 100	Jon Husted 18 in 100	Brown +3.5	13
Louisiana	Likely R	Jamie Davis 13 in 100	Julia Letlow 87 in 100	Letlow +13.0	none
Minnesota	Likely D	Peggy Flanagan 88 in 100	Michele Tafoya 12 in 100	Flanagan +4.5	6
Michigan	Likely D	Abdul El-Sayed 88 in 100	Mike Rogers 12 in 100	El-Sayed +4.5	27
Florida (special)	Likely R	Angie Nixon 10 in 100	Ashley Moody 90 in 100	Moody +5.3	11
Mississippi	Likely R	Scott Colom 10 in 100	Cindy Hyde-Smith 90 in 100	Hyde-Smith +5.3	2
Idaho	Solid R	Todd Achilles (I) 5 in 100	Jim Risch 95 in 100	Risch +8.3	1
Virginia	Solid D	Mark Warner 97 in 100	Bert Mizusawa 3 in 100	Warner +22.1	none
New Hampshire	Solid D	Chris Pappas 98 in 100	John E. Sununu 2 in 100	Pappas +7.9	7
Kentucky	Solid R	Charles Booker 2 in 100	Andy Barr 98 in 100	Barr +22.5	none
New Jersey	Solid D	Cory Booker 98 in 100	Justin Murphy 2 in 100	Booker +23.3	none
Colorado	Solid D	John Hickenlooper 99 in 100	Mark Baisley 1 in 100	Hickenlooper +25.0	none
Oklahoma	Solid R	N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas 1 in 100	Kevin Hern 99 in 100	Hern +26.9	none
South Dakota	Solid R	Brian Bengs (I) 1 in 100	Mike Rounds 99 in 100	Rounds +27.2	none
Georgia · runoff 2 in 100	Solid D	Jon Ossoff 99 in 100	Mike Collins 1 in 100	Ossoff +10.3	7
North Carolina	Solid D Likely flip · R → D	Roy Cooper 99 in 100	Michael Whatley 1 in 100	Cooper +10.5	19
Arkansas	Solid R	Hallie Shoffner <1 in 100	Tom Cotton >99 in 100	Cotton +11.5	3
Oregon	Solid D	Jeff Merkley >99 in 100	David Brock Smith <1 in 100	Merkley +31.9	none
Illinois	Solid D	Juliana Stratton >99 in 100	Don Tracy <1 in 100	Stratton +14.8	1
Delaware	Solid D	Chris Coons >99 in 100	Michael Katz <1 in 100	Coons +32.4	none
New Mexico	Solid D	Ben Ray Luján >99 in 100	Larry Marker <1 in 100	Luján +17.5	2
Tennessee	Solid R	Marquita Bradshaw <1 in 100	Bill Hagerty >99 in 100	Hagerty +17.1	1
West Virginia	Solid R	Rachel Fetty Anderson <1 in 100	Shelley Moore Capito >99 in 100	Capito +37.6	none
Wyoming	Solid R	James W. Byrd <1 in 100	Harriet Hageman >99 in 100	Hageman +36.4	none
Montana	Solid R	Alani Bankhead <1 in 100	Kurt Alme >99 in 100	Alme +18.1	13
Alabama	Solid R	Everett Wess <1 in 100	Barry Moore >99 in 100	Moore +17.5	2
Massachusetts	Solid D	Ed Markey >99 in 100	John Deaton <1 in 100	Markey +25.6	5
Rhode Island	Solid D	Jack Reed >99 in 100	Raymond McKay <1 in 100	Reed +23.4	3