U.S. Senate · All Virginia races

Virginia

Solid D

Compare

Mark Warner

Democratic · incumbent

97 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Bert Mizusawa

Republican

3 in 100

Mark Warner wins in 97 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mark Warner +22.1.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Warner +22.1; 80 in 100 fall between Warner +7.8 and Warner +36.4.

The candidates

Bert Mizusawa

Republican · United States Army Major General (born 1957)

Bert Kameaaloha Mizusawa is a retired major general in the United States Army, serving in the Army from 1979 to 2015. Wikipedia

Raised

$1.0M

Cash on hand

$230K

Through 2026-09-30

Mark WarnerIncumbent

Democratic · American politician (born 1954)

Mark Robert Warner is an American businessman and politician serving as the senior United States senator from Virginia, a seat he has held since 2009. A member of the Democratic Party, Warner served as the 69th governor of Virginia from 2002 to 2006. Wikipedia

Raised

$27.2M

Cash on hand

$7.5M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at — across 0 polls testing Mark Warner against Bert Mizusawa.

Warner +1.9 since Jun 16, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
The Public Sentiment Institute	Jun 12–Jun 16	996 RV	Warner +16.0	Warner +16.2	0.00
The Public Sentiment Institute	Jun 12–Jun 16	— LV	Warner +17.0	Warner +17.2	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Mizusawa +2 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Warner 98, Mizusawa 3.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+3.0	roughly 6 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Warner +1.0	In 2020 they ran 2.0 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Warner +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Warner +22.1	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Warner +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Warner +22.1	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Mark Warner 97 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Mark Warner 97 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Mark Warner >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Safe DThe Economist: Safe DSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid DSplit Ticket: Safe D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 7 pm Eastern.
Last election: 55.99% D
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #15 of 35