Chris Pappas wins in 98 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Chris Pappas +7.0 across 7 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Chris Pappas +15.1. Polls get 88% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Pappas +8.0; 80 in 100 fall between Pappas +3.0 and Pappas +12.9.
Christopher Charles Pappas is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative from New Hampshire's 1st congressional district since 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, Pappas served on the New Hampshire Executive Council from 2013 to 2019. Wikipedia
John Edward Sununu is an American politician from the U.S. state of New Hampshire. A member of the Republican Party, he served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1997 to 2003 and in the U.S. Senate from 2003 to 2009. He is the son of John H. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
The polling average stands at Pappas +7.0 across 7 polls testing Chris Pappas against John E. Sununu.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 613 LV | Pappas +5.0 | Pappas +6.6 | 0.67 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 1,418 LV | Pappas +8.0 | Pappas +8.4 | 0.50 |
| InsiderAdvantageB− | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 1,200 LV | Pappas +8.0 | Pappas +9.6 | 0.64 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 1,878 LV | Sununu +2.0 | Sununu +0.5 | 0.32 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey CenterB+ | Aug 17–Aug 18 | 1,411 LV | Pappas +7.0 | Pappas +7.6 | 0.44 |
| Saint AnselmB+ | Jun 24–Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | Pappas +6.0 | Pappas +8.1 | 0.15 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 2,232 LV | Pappas +3.0 | Pappas +5.0 | 0.09 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Apr 17–Apr 21 | 1,295 LV | Pappas +7.0 | Pappas +9.1 | 0.00 |
| Emerson CollegeA− | Mar 21–Mar 23 | 1,100 LV | Pappas +1.6 | Pappas +4.5 | 0.00 |
| Saint AnselmB+ | Mar 16–Mar 18 | 1,491 RV | Pappas +3.0 | Pappas +5.6 | 0.00 |
| yes. every kid. | Jan 28–Jan 29 | 563 LV | Pappas +4.0 | Pappas +6.8 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jan 15–Jan 19 | 2,038 LV | Pappas +5.0 | Pappas +7.7 | 0.00 |
| Praecones AnalyticaA for New Hampshire Journal | Dec 26–Dec 28 | 603 RV | Pappas +6.7 | Pappas +9.8 | 0.00 |
| Saint AnselmB+ | Nov 18–Nov 19 | 2,112 RV | Pappas +3.0 | Pappas +6.0 | 0.00 |
| co/efficientB | Oct 9–Oct 13 | 1,034 LV | Pappas +3.0 | Pappas +11.1 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 23 | 1,225 LV | Pappas +6.0 | Pappas +10.1 | 0.00 |
| co/efficientB | Sep 10–Sep 12 | 904 LV | Pappas +3.0 | Pappas +10.6 | 0.00 |
| 1892 PollingA for One Nation | Sep 2–Sep 4 | 500 LV | Pappas +2.0 | Pappas +6.7 | 0.00 |
| Quantus Insights · REP sponsor for TrendingPolitics | Mar 17–Mar 19 | 650 RV | Sununu +9.0 | Sununu +1.9 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Pappas 98, Sununu 2.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 88% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Pappas +7.0 | ±2.9 sampling range; effective 5.5 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Pappas +15.1 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Pappas +8.3 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Pappas +7.9 | ±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
Senate races, closest first · this is #16 of 35