U.S. Senate · All Kansas races

Kansas

Toss-upLikely flip · R → D

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 52 in 100 that it changes hands.

Adam Hamilton

Democratic

52 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Roger Marshall

Republican · incumbent

48 in 100

Adam Hamilton wins in 52 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Adam Hamilton +1.4 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Roger Marshall +7.0. Polls get 87% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hamilton +0.2; 80 in 100 fall between Marshall +4.8 and Hamilton +5.3.

The candidates

Adam Hamilton

Democratic · American minister and U.S. Senate candidate (born 1964)

Adam Joseph Hamilton is an American Christian theologian, minister, and author. He is the senior pastor of the Resurrection, a United Methodist Church, the largest United Methodist congregation in the United States, based in the Greater Kansas City area. Wikipedia

Raised

$13.5M

Cash on hand

$3.2M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Roger MarshallIncumbent

Republican · American politician and physician (born 1960)

Roger Wayne Marshall is an American politician, physician, and former military officer serving as the junior United States senator from Kansas since 2021. From 2017 to 2021, he was the U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district, a mostly rural district covering much of western and northern Kansas. Wikipedia

Raised

$7.0M

Cash on hand

$922K

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

David Graham

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Hamilton +1.4 across 3 polls testing Adam Hamilton against Roger Marshall.

Hamilton +6.7 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
InsiderAdvantageB−	Oct 13–Oct 14	1,200 LV	Marshall +1.0	Marshall +0.1	1.14
Wedgewood Polls	Sep 22–Sep 24	500 LV	Hamilton +2.0	Hamilton +2.4	0.43
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Sep 15–Sep 16	750 LV	Hamilton +2.0	Hamilton +3.2	0.67
Tavern Research	Jan 26–Jan 28	1,013 LV	Marshall +8.0	Marshall +3.1	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Hamilton +32 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Hamilton 52, Marshall 48.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 87% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Hamilton +1.4	±4.3 sampling range; effective 2.6 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+8.0	roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Hamilton +1.6	In 2020 they ran 3.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Marshall +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Marshall +7.0	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Marshall +1.2	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Hamilton +0.3	±4.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Adam Hamilton 63 in 100 (Lean D)
Polls + fundamentals: Adam Hamilton 52 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Adam Hamilton 48 in 100 (Toss-up)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: TossupDDHQ: Lean RThe Economist: TossupSplit Ticket/FPO: TossupFox News: Lean RInside Elections: Tilt RRCP: TossupSabato: TossupSilver Bulletin: TossupSplit Ticket: Tossup

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8 pm and 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 53.22% R
Incumbent renominated

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