U.S. Senate · open seat · All Iowa races

Iowa

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 53 in 100 that it changes hands.

Josh Turek

Democratic

53 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Ashley Hinson

Republican

47 in 100

Josh Turek wins in 53 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Josh Turek +0.7 across 14 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ashley Hinson +2.4. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Turek +0.3; 80 in 100 fall between Hinson +4.6 and Turek +5.3.

The candidates

Ashley Hinson

Republican · American politician and journalist (born 1983)

Ashley Elizabeth Hinson is an American politician, and former broadcast journalist, serving as the U.S. representative for Iowa's 2nd congressional district since 2021. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Josh Turek

Democratic · American politician and wheelchair basketball player

Joshua Mark Turek is an American politician and wheelchair basketball player serving as a member of the Iowa House of Representatives from the 20th district. He is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa. Wikipedia

Raised

$20.2M

Cash on hand

$3.6M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Thomas Laehn

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Turek +0.7 across 14 polls testing Josh Turek against Ashley Hinson.

Turek +1.4 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
YouGovA−	Oct 6–Oct 12	2,245 LV	Turek +1.0	Turek +1.3	0.80
Marist University	Oct 8–Oct 11	1,100 LV	Turek +3.0	Turek +0.7	0.47
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Oct 5–Oct 6	650 LV	Hinson +1.6	Hinson +1.2	0.36
CNN/SSRSB−	Sep 29–Oct 5	801 LV	Hinson +2.0	Hinson +2.5	0.44
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Sep 24–Sep 28	1,008 LV	Turek +2.0	Turek +1.3	0.38
Marist University	Sep 17–Sep 20	1,050 RV	Turek +8.0	Turek +6.4	0.16
co/efficientB · REP sponsor	Sep 14–Sep 16	831 LV	Hinson +4.0	Turek +0.5	0.11
YouGovA−	Sep 3–Sep 8	2,166 RV	Turek +1.0	Turek +2.4	0.15
YouGovA−	Sep 3–Sep 8	2,041 LV	Turek +4.0	Turek +5.4	0.14
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Aug 31–Sep 1	750 LV	Hinson +5.0	Hinson +3.0	0.07
Suffolk UniversityA−	Aug 20–Aug 23	500 LV	Hinson +4.6	Hinson +4.0	0.06
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Aug 2–Aug 4	712 LV	Hinson +3.0	Hinson +1.0	0.02
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Jun 15–Jun 27	600 LV	Hinson +2.0	Turek +1.5	0.00
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Jun 23–Jun 27	1,003 RV	Turek +4.0	Turek +5.2	0.00
CygnalA+ · REP sponsor for Iowans for Tax Relief	Jun 16–Jun 19	600 LV	Hinson +1.8	Turek +0.1	0.00
Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee	Jun 3–Jun 4	557 RV	Turek +0.0	Turek +1.7	0.00
Echelon InsightsA− for NetChoice	Apr 3–Apr 9	377 LV	Turek +1.0	Turek +4.5	0.00
GBAOB− · DEM sponsor for ModSquad	Mar 10–Mar 16	1,200 LV	Hinson +4.0	Hinson +1.3	0.00
Change ResearchB−	Jan 8–Jan 11	1,108 LV	Hinson +3.0	Hinson +2.1	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Turek +7 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Turek 53, Hinson 47.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Turek +0.7	±2.6 sampling range; effective 7 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+6.0	roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Hinson +2.4	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Hinson +0.8	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Turek +0.3	±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Josh Turek 57 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals: Josh Turek 53 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Josh Turek 51 in 100 (Toss-up)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: TossupDDHQ: TossupThe Economist: Lean RSplit Ticket/FPO: TossupFox News: TossupInside Elections: Tilt RRCP: TossupSabato: TossupSilver Bulletin: TossupSplit Ticket: Tossup

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 51.74% R
Incumbent retiring

Senate races, closest first · this is #2 of 35