U.S. Senate · All Nebraska races

Nebraska

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); an independent have a real chance: 40 in 100 that it changes hands.

Dan Osborn

Independent

40 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Pete Ricketts

Republican · incumbent

60 in 100

Pete Ricketts wins in 60 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Pete Ricketts +0.1 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Pete Ricketts +7.0. Polls get 85% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Ricketts +1.1; 80 in 100 fall between Ricketts +6.6 and Osborn +4.4.

The candidates

Dan Osborn

Independent · American labor union leader (born 1975)

Daniel L. Osborn is an American labor union leader and independent politician from Nebraska. Wikipedia

Raised

$9.8M

Cash on hand

$2.2M

Through 2026-10-14

Official website ↗

Pete RickettsIncumbent

Republican · American politician (born 1964)

John Peter Ricketts is an American businessman and politician serving as the junior United States senator from Nebraska since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 40th governor of Nebraska from 2015 to 2023. Wikipedia

Raised

$13.4M

Cash on hand

$1.1M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Chuck Conboy

America First

Mike Marvin

Legal Marijuana Now

Robin Richards

Working People

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Ricketts +0.1 across 2 polls testing Dan Osborn against Pete Ricketts.

No change since Sep 8, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
National Public Affairs	Oct 2–Oct 5	800 LV	Ricketts +3.0	Ricketts +0.5	0.72
GBAO StrategiesB− · DEM sponsor for Working Class Majority PAC	Sep 3–Sep 8	800 LV	Osborn +1.0	Osborn +1.1	0.26

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Osborn +20 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Osborn 40, Ricketts 60.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 85% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Ricketts +0.1	±5.4 sampling range; effective 1.6 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+10.0	roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Osborn +6.7	In 2014 they ran 13.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Ricketts +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Ricketts +7.0	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Ricketts +7.4	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Ricketts +1.1	±4.3 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Dan Osborn 49 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals: Dan Osborn 40 in 100 (Lean R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Dan Osborn 20 in 100 (Likely R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Likely RDDHQ: Likely RThe Economist: Lean RSplit Ticket/FPO: Likely RFox News: Likely RInside Elections: Lean RRCP: Lean RSabato: Lean RSilver Bulletin: Lean RSplit Ticket: Lean R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Dan Osborn is an independent. Seats won by independents who haven’t said which party they’d caucus with are counted separately in chamber control.
Last polls close at 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 62.58% R (2024 sp.)
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #3 of 35