U.S. Senate · All South Carolina races

South Carolina

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats have a real chance: 38 in 100 that it changes hands.

Annie Andrews

Democratic

38 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Darline Graham

Republican · incumbent

62 in 100

Darline Graham wins in 62 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Annie Andrews +0.1 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Darline Graham +8.7. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Graham +1.2; 80 in 100 fall between Graham +6.4 and Andrews +4.1.

The candidates

Annie Andrews

Democratic · American physician (born 1981)

Anne Elizabeth Lintzenich Andrews is an American pediatrician and political candidate who is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina. Wikipedia

Raised

$20.2M

Cash on hand

$2.3M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Darline GrahamIncumbent

Republican · American politician (born 1964)

Darline Lettie Graham Nordone is an American politician and public administrator serving as the junior United States senator from South Carolina, a seat she has held since July 14, 2026. A member of the Republican Party, she was appointed to fill the vacancy created by the death of her older brother, Lindsey Graham. Wikipedia

Raised

$21.7M

Cash on hand

$315K

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Mark Hackett

Constitution

Kasie Whitener

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Andrews +0.1 across 2 polls testing Annie Andrews against Darline Graham.

Andrews +1.1 since Sep 9, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
InsiderAdvantageB−	Sep 28–Sep 29	1,200 LV	Graham +1.0	Andrews +0.0	0.64
InsiderAdvantageB−	Sep 8–Sep 9	1,200 LV	Graham +1.9	Andrews +0.1	0.46

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Andrews +22 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Andrews 38, Graham 62.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Andrews +0.1	±4.9 sampling range; effective 1.9 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+8.0	roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Andrews +0.7	In 2020 they ran 1.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Graham +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Graham +8.8	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Graham +8.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Graham +1.2	±4.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Annie Andrews 51 in 100 (Toss-up)
Polls + fundamentals: Annie Andrews 38 in 100 (Lean R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Annie Andrews 19 in 100 (Likely R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Likely RDDHQ: Lean RThe Economist: Lean RSplit Ticket/FPO: Lean RFox News: Likely RInside Elections: Lean RRCP: Lean RSabato: Likely RSilver Bulletin: Likely RSplit Ticket: Likely R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 7 pm Eastern.
Last election: Appointed (2026)
Interim appointee nominated in runoff

Senate races, closest first · this is #4 of 35