Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 66 in 100 that it changes hands.
Mary Peltola wins in 66 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Mary Peltola +2.5 across 7 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Dan S. Sullivan +5.8. Polls get 88% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Peltola +1.5; 80 in 100 fall between Sullivan +3.4 and Peltola +6.5.
Mary Sattler Peltola is an American politician and former tribal judge who served as the U.S. representative for Alaska's at-large congressional district from 2022 to 2025. Wikipedia
Daniel Scott Sullivan is an American politician, attorney, and Marine Corps veteran serving as the junior United States senator from Alaska, a seat he has held since 2015. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Peltola +2.5 across 7 polls testing Mary Peltola against Dan S. Sullivan.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 578 RV | Peltola +1.0 | Peltola +0.9 | 0.53 |
| Quantus Insights | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 758 LV | Sullivan +0.6 | Peltola +0.6 | 0.60 |
| co/efficientB | Sep 14–Sep 17 | 799 LV | Sullivan +3.0 | Peltola +1.4 | 0.57 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchB for AARP | Sep 8–Sep 11 | 800 LV | Peltola +6.0 | Peltola +7.1 | 0.49 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Aug 20–Aug 23 | 1,495 LV | Peltola +1.2 | Peltola +3.1 | 0.36 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Aug 2–Aug 5 | 1,371 LV | Peltola +1.6 | Peltola +3.5 | 0.24 |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA | Jun 15–Jun 29 | 593 LV | Sullivan +2.0 | Peltola +1.4 | 0.11 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Jun 4–Jun 7 | 1,393 LV | Peltola +5.2 | Peltola +7.6 | 0.00 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | May 14–May 17 | 1,401 LV | Peltola +4.6 | Peltola +6.4 | 0.00 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Apr 16–Apr 19 | 1,946 LV | Peltola +4.0 | Peltola +6.6 | 0.00 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Apr 16–Apr 19 | — LV | Peltola +3.5 | Peltola +6.1 | 0.00 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Mar 19–Mar 22 | 1,283 LV | Peltola +4.8 | Peltola +7.7 | 0.00 |
| Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee | Jan 16–Jan 17 | 611 RV | Peltola +2.0 | Peltola +4.8 | 0.00 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Jan 8–Jan 11 | 1,681 LV | Peltola +1.6 | Peltola +4.8 | 0.00 |
| Data for ProgressA− · DEM sponsor | Oct 17–Oct 23 | 823 LV | Peltola +1.0 | Peltola +4.6 | 0.00 |
| Alaska Survey ResearchB+ | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 1,613 LV | Sullivan +4.2 | Peltola +0.4 | 0.00 |
| Data for ProgressA− | Jul 21–Jul 27 | 678 LV | Sullivan +1.0 | Peltola +3.4 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Peltola 66, Sullivan 34.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 88% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Peltola +2.5 | ±2.8 sampling range; effective 6 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+6.0 | roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Sullivan +1.3 | In 2020 they ran 2.6 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Sullivan +3.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Sullivan +5.8 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Peltola +2.5 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Peltola +1.6 | ±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
County detail isn’t shown for Alaska: Alaska reports results by state House district, not by county.
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