U.S. Senate · open seat · All Texas races

Texas

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Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 69 in 100 that it changes hands.

James Talarico

Democratic

69 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Ken Paxton

Republican

31 in 100

James Talarico wins in 69 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has James Talarico +2.1 across 26 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ken Paxton +0.3. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Talarico +1.8; 80 in 100 fall between Paxton +3.1 and Talarico +6.7.

The candidates

Ken Paxton

Republican · American politician and lawyer (born 1962)

Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the 51st attorney general of Texas since 2015. He is the Republican Party nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas. Wikipedia

Raised

$19.5M

Cash on hand

$4.9M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

James Talarico

Democratic · American politician (born 1989)

James Dell Talarico is an American politician, Presbyterian seminarian, and educator serving since 2018 as a member of the Texas House of Representatives. He is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas. Wikipedia

Raised

$128.8M

Cash on hand

$14.6M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Ted Brown

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

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Polls

The polling average stands at Talarico +2.1 across 26 polls testing James Talarico against Ken Paxton.

Paxton +2.4 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
InsiderAdvantageB−	Oct 13–Oct 14	1,200 LV	Paxton +1.0	Paxton +0.1	0.68
ActiVoteB	Sep 30–Oct 14	400 LV	Talarico +3.8	Talarico +3.4	0.44
Quantus Insights	Oct 9–Oct 11	854 LV	Paxton +0.5	Talarico +0.5	0.61
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA	Oct 5–Oct 8	617 LV	Talarico +4.0	Talarico +2.4	0.38
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Sep 24–Sep 28	881 LV	Talarico +2.0	Talarico +1.3	0.35
Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Action	Sep 20–Sep 28	800 LV	Talarico +2.4	Talarico +2.4	0.27
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGovA	Sep 18–Sep 28	850 LV	Talarico +0.0	Talarico +0.8	0.41
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	Sep 19–Sep 22	1,007 LV	Talarico +4.0	Talarico +3.6	0.16
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Sep 15–Sep 19	1,800 LV	Talarico +1.0	Talarico +2.7	0.20
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Sep 12–Sep 14	1,000 LV	Talarico +1.0	Talarico +2.8	0.18
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA	Sep 8–Sep 11	614 LV	Talarico +6.0	Talarico +5.6	0.10
InsiderAdvantageB−	Sep 8–Sep 9	1,200 LV	Talarico +1.5	Talarico +3.5	0.12
YouGovA− for Univision	Aug 27–Sep 4	1,000 RV	Talarico +5.0	Talarico +6.9	0.13
Fabrizio Ward/Impact ResearchC+	Aug 30–Sep 1	895 LV	Talarico +4.0	Talarico +5.3	0.09
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	Aug 21–Aug 24	1,000 LV	Talarico +6.0	Talarico +7.0	0.04
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGovA−	Aug 5–Aug 13	1,218 RV	Talarico +3.0	Talarico +4.8	0.05
Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media	Aug 9–Aug 10	1,000 LV	Paxton +1.0	Talarico +0.8	0.03
Wedgewood Polls	Jul 30–Jul 31	800 LV	Talarico +2.0	Talarico +4.1	0.02
YouGov Blue · DEM sponsor for 254 Labs	Jul 15–Jul 31	1,001 RV	Talarico +3.0	Talarico +5.0	0.01
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Jul 27–Jul 30	1,200 LV	Talarico +2.0	Talarico +4.8	0.01
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA for Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service	Jul 27–Jul 30	619 LV	Talarico +4.0	Talarico +4.2	0.01
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News	Jul 23–Jul 27	1,006 RV	Talarico +3.0	Talarico +4.0	0.02
Slingshot StrategiesB− for Texas Public Opinion Research	Jul 15–Jul 17	1,048 LV	Talarico +5.0	Talarico +6.7	0.01
A2 Insights	Jun 23–Jun 28	618 LV	Talarico +2.3	Talarico +3.9	0.00
The New York Times/Siena UniversityA	Jun 19–Jun 27	656 LV	Talarico +0.0	Talarico +3.5	0.00
SoCal Strategies · REP sponsor for Red Eagle Politics	Jun 21–Jun 21	800 LV	Paxton +1.4	Talarico +1.7	0.00
Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas/YouGovA−	Jun 5–Jun 12	1,200 RV	Paxton +1.0	Talarico +1.5	0.00
Quantus Insights	Jun 3–Jun 4	800 LV	Paxton +2.0	Talarico +0.9	0.00
ReconMR/Siena UniversityA for Texas A&M University Bush School of Government & Public Service	Jun 1–Jun 4	807 LV	Talarico +3.0	Talarico +3.2	0.00
Slingshot StrategiesB− · DEM sponsor for Texas Public Opinion Research	May 27–May 28	1,670 LV	Talarico +3.0	Talarico +4.1	0.00
Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Lone Star Rising PAC	May 22–May 23	643 LV	Talarico +7.0	Talarico +8.2	0.00
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center	Apr 22–May 6	1,223 LV	Talarico +0.0	Talarico +2.8	0.00
Texas Public Opinion Research	Apr 17–Apr 20	1,018 LV	Talarico +5.0	Talarico +7.1	0.00
YouGovA− for University of Texas	Apr 10–Apr 20	1,200 RV	Talarico +8.0	Talarico +10.4	0.00
Impact ResearchC+ for James Talarico	Mar 12–Mar 17	900 LV	Talarico +1.0	Talarico +3.4	0.00
Public Policy PollingA− · DEM sponsor for Senate Majority PAC	Mar 4–Mar 5	576 A	Talarico +2.0	Talarico +3.8	0.00
University of Houston/YouGovA−	Jan 20–Jan 31	1,502 LV	Paxton +2.0	Talarico +0.7	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Jan 10–Jan 12	1,165 RV	Talarico +0.0	Talarico +3.3	0.00
Ragnar Research PartnersB+ · REP sponsor	Nov 12–Nov 17	1,000 LV	Talarico +0.0	Talarico +3.0	0.00
University of Houston/Texas Southern University	Sep 19–Oct 1	1,650 RV	Paxton +3.0	Talarico +1.3	0.00

Showing the 40 most recent of 41 polls.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Talarico +13 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Talarico 69, Paxton 31.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Talarico +2.1	±2.1 sampling range; effective 11.1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+6.0	roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Paxton +0.3	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Talarico +1.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Talarico +1.8	±3.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: James Talarico 71 in 100 (Lean D)
Polls + fundamentals: James Talarico 69 in 100 (Lean D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: James Talarico 67 in 100 (Lean D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: TossupDDHQ: TossupThe Economist: TossupSplit Ticket/FPO: TossupFox News: TossupInside Elections: TossupRCP: TossupSabato: TossupSilver Bulletin: Lean D (flip)Split Ticket: Lean D (flip)

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8 pm and 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 53.51% R
Incumbent lost renomination in runoff

Senate races, closest first · this is #6 of 35