U.S. Senate · open seat · All Kentucky races

Kentucky

Solid R

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Charles Booker

Democratic

2 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Andy Barr

Republican

98 in 100

Andy Barr wins in 98 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Andy Barr +22.5.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Barr +22.5; 80 in 100 fall between Barr +36.8 and Barr +8.2.

The candidates

Andy Barr

Republican · American politician (born 1973)

Garland Hale "Andy" Barr IV is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district since 2013. Previously, he served in the administration of Kentucky governor Ernie Fletcher. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia

Raised

$12.0M

Cash on hand

$2.7M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Charles Booker

Democratic · American politician (born 1984)

Charles Booker is an American politician who served from 2019 to 2021 as the Kentucky state representative for the 43rd House district, making him the state's youngest Black lawmaker. He is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky. Wikipedia

Raised

$1.7M

Cash on hand

$344K

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Christopher Campbell

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Charles Booker against Andy Barr yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Booker +1 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Booker 2, Barr 98.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+15.0	roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Barr +22.5	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Barr +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Barr +22.5	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Charles Booker 2 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Charles Booker 2 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Charles Booker <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RThe Economist: Safe RSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 6 pm and 7 pm Eastern.
Last election: 57.76% R
Incumbent retiring

Senate races, closest first · this is #17 of 35