U.S. Senate · All New Jersey races

New Jersey

Solid D

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Cory Booker

Democratic · incumbent

98 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Justin Murphy

Republican

2 in 100

Cory Booker wins in 98 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Cory Booker +23.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Booker +23.3; 80 in 100 fall between Booker +9.1 and Booker +37.7.

The candidates

Cory BookerIncumbent

Democratic · American politician (born 1969)

Cory Anthony Booker is an American politician and lawyer serving as the senior United States senator from New Jersey, a seat he has held since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, Booker is the first African-American U.S. senator from New Jersey. Wikipedia

Raised

$35.3M

Cash on hand

$22.6M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Justin Murphy

Republican

Raised

$63K

Cash on hand

$10K

Through 2026-09-30

No biography on file yet.

Veronica Fernandez

Independent

Joanne Kuniansky

Socialist Workers

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Cory Booker against Justin Murphy yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Booker +1 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Booker 98, Murphy 2.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+4.0	roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Booker +0.2	In 2020 they ran 0.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Booker +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Booker +23.3	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Booker +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Booker +23.3	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Cory Booker 98 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Cory Booker 98 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Cory Booker >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Safe DThe Economist: Safe DSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid DSplit Ticket: Safe D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8 pm Eastern.
Last election: 57.23% D
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #18 of 35