U.S. Senate · All Mississippi races

Mississippi

Likely R

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Scott Colom

Democratic

10 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Cindy Hyde-Smith

Republican · incumbent

90 in 100

Cindy Hyde-Smith wins in 90 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Cindy Hyde-Smith +4.1 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Cindy Hyde-Smith +12.6. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hyde-Smith +5.3; 80 in 100 fall between Hyde-Smith +10.6 and Colom +0.0.

The candidates

Scott Colom

Democratic · American lawyer (born 1982)

Scott Winston Colom is an American lawyer and politician serving as the district attorney for the 16th Judicial District of Mississippi. He is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Mississippi. Wikipedia

Raised

$3.9M

Cash on hand

$992K

Through 2026-09-30

Cindy Hyde-SmithIncumbent

Republican · American politician (born 1959)

Cindy Hyde-Smith is an American politician and lobbyist serving since 2018 as the junior United States senator from Mississippi. A member of the Republican Party, she served from 2012 to 2018 as the Mississippi Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce and from 2000 to 2012 in the Mississippi State Senate. Wikipedia

Raised

$6.1M

Cash on hand

$2.4M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Ty Pinkins

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Hyde-Smith +4.1 across 2 polls testing Scott Colom against Cindy Hyde-Smith.

Hyde-Smith +1.4 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Wedgewood Polls	Oct 12–Oct 14	511 LV	Hyde-Smith +4.0	Hyde-Smith +3.6	0.69
Data for ProgressA− · DEM sponsor for Way to Lead PAC	Aug 5–Aug 15	1,018 LV	Hyde-Smith +6.0	Hyde-Smith +5.0	0.35
Impact ResearchC+ · DEM sponsor for SPLC Action Fund	Apr 8–Apr 12	500 LV	Hyde-Smith +3.0	Hyde-Smith +0.5	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Hyde-Smith +5 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Colom 10, Hyde-Smith 90.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Hyde-Smith +4.1	±5.1 sampling range; effective 1.8 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+11.0	roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Colom +3.3	In 2020 they ran 6.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Hyde-Smith +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Hyde-Smith +12.6	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Hyde-Smith +17.6	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Hyde-Smith +5.3	±4.3 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Scott Colom 18 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Scott Colom 10 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Scott Colom 1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Likely RThe Economist: Likely RSplit Ticket/FPO: Likely RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Likely RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8 pm Eastern.
Last election: 54.11% R
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #13 of 35