U.S. Senate · special election · All Florida races

Florida (special)

Likely R

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Angie Nixon

Democratic

10 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Ashley Moody

Republican · incumbent

90 in 100

Ashley Moody wins in 90 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Ashley Moody +5.4 across 11 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ashley Moody +3.9. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moody +5.3; 80 in 100 fall between Moody +10.7 and Nixon +0.0.

The candidates

Ashley MoodyIncumbent

Republican · American politician and attorney (born 1975)

Ashley Brooke Moody is an American politician and attorney serving since 2025 as the junior United States senator from Florida. A member of the Republican Party, she served from 2019 to 2025 as the 38th Florida attorney general. Wikipedia

Raised

$13.3M

Cash on hand

$2.8M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Angie Nixon

Democratic · American politician (born 1984)

Angela Nixon is an American politician and businesswoman who has served as a member of the Florida House of Representatives since 2020. A member of the Working Families Party and the Democratic Socialists of America, she is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida. Wikipedia

Raised

$8.2M

Cash on hand

$4.1M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Neil Gillespie

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Moody +5.4 across 11 polls testing Angie Nixon against Ashley Moody.

Nixon +4.8 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
MDW for EDGE Communications	Oct 4–Oct 10	800 LV	Moody +6.0	Moody +6.0	0.58
St. Pete PollsB− for Florida Politics	Oct 5–Oct 7	836 LV	Moody +2.0	Moody +3.9	0.47
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for The James Madison Institute	Sep 28–Oct 4	857 LV	Moody +10.0	Moody +7.1	0.31
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for The James Madison Institute	Sep 28–Oct 4	1,200 RV	Moody +12.0	Moody +9.0	0.36
Change ResearchB− for Freedom Project USA	Sep 25–Sep 27	1,063 LV	Moody +1.0	Moody +2.9	0.35
InsiderAdvantageB−	Sep 20–Sep 21	600 LV	Moody +7.5	Moody +6.2	0.30
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion ResearchB+	Sep 14–Sep 21	830 LV	Moody +11.0	Moody +8.3	0.35
St. Pete PollsB− for Florida Politics	Sep 15–Sep 17	913 LV	Moody +0.4	Moody +1.5	0.23
Quantus Insights	Sep 8–Sep 10	733 LV	Moody +7.4	Moody +5.2	0.19
Change ResearchB− for Freedom Project USA	Sep 7–Sep 9	1,107 LV	Nixon +0.0	Moody +0.7	0.18
University of North FloridaA−	Jul 8–Jul 17	848 LV	Moody +8.0	Moody +4.7	0.03
Stetson UniversityB+	Mar 25–Apr 13	848 LV	Moody +13.0	Moody +10.5	0.00
Emerson CollegeA−	Mar 29–Mar 31	1,125 LV	Moody +11.0	Moody +8.1	0.00
University of North FloridaA−	Feb 21–Mar 2	768 LV	Moody +8.0	Moody +4.2	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Nixon 10, Moody 90.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Moody +5.4	±2.3 sampling range; effective 9 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+5.0	roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	Moody +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Moody +3.9	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Moody +13.7	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Moody +5.3	±3.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Angie Nixon 10 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals: Angie Nixon 10 in 100 (Likely R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Angie Nixon 3 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Likely RThe Economist: Likely RSplit Ticket/FPO: Likely RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Likely RRCP: Lean RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Likely RSplit Ticket: Likely R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 7 pm and 8 pm Eastern.
Last election: Appointed (2025)
Interim appointee nominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #12 of 35