Abdul El-Sayed wins in 88 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Abdul El-Sayed +3.8 across 27 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Abdul El-Sayed +10.5. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin El-Sayed +4.5; 80 in 100 fall between Rogers +0.4 and El-Sayed +9.4.
Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed is an American epidemiologist and politician who is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Michigan. Wikipedia
Michael J. Rogers is an American politician and former FBI agent who served from 2001 to 2015 as the U.S. representative for Michigan's 8th congressional district. A member of the Republican Party, he chaired the United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence from 2011 to 2015. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at El-Sayed +3.8 across 27 polls testing Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tyson GroupB− · REP sponsor for Alliance for a Better Future | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 600 LV | Rogers +2.0 | Rogers +0.7 | 0.21 |
| Mitchell Research & CommunicationsB− | Oct 1–Oct 1 | 682 LV | El-Sayed +5.0 | El-Sayed +5.5 | 0.34 |
| Z to A Research · DEM sponsor for Rust Belt Rising | Sep 28–Oct 1 | 483 LV | El-Sayed +7.0 | El-Sayed +7.0 | 0.18 |
| Trafalgar GroupB+ · REP sponsor | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,085 LV | El-Sayed +2.0 | El-Sayed +2.7 | 0.26 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,028 LV | El-Sayed +1.0 | El-Sayed +0.3 | 0.53 |
| The Tyson GroupB− · REP sponsor for Alliance for a Better Future | Sep 24–Sep 27 | 600 LV | El-Sayed +1.0 | El-Sayed +2.3 | 0.14 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Action | Sep 20–Sep 27 | 800 LV | El-Sayed +5.0 | El-Sayed +4.8 | 0.38 |
| co/efficientB | Sep 21–Sep 23 | 843 LV | El-Sayed +0.0 | El-Sayed +3.8 | 0.46 |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 605 LV | El-Sayed +5.0 | El-Sayed +6.6 | 0.44 |
| Cygnal/Beacon ResearchD for Michigan Enjoyer | Sep 18–Sep 21 | 600 LV | El-Sayed +5.0 | El-Sayed +5.5 | 0.15 |
| Suffolk UniversityA− | Sep 16–Sep 20 | 500 LV | El-Sayed +7.0 | El-Sayed +6.7 | 0.35 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and GovernmentA+ | Sep 10–Sep 14 | 803 LV | El-Sayed +3.0 | El-Sayed +3.7 | 0.45 |
| Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar Media | Sep 12–Sep 14 | 1,000 LV | El-Sayed +2.5 | El-Sayed +4.3 | 0.44 |
| Trafalgar GroupB+ · REP sponsor | Sep 7–Sep 9 | 1,079 LV | El-Sayed +1.5 | El-Sayed +3.2 | 0.12 |
| EPIC-MRAB+ | Aug 22–Aug 28 | 600 LV | El-Sayed +4.0 | El-Sayed +5.8 | 0.11 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovA+ | Aug 10–Aug 20 | 779 LV | El-Sayed +5.0 | El-Sayed +5.0 | 0.12 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGovA+ | Aug 10–Aug 20 | 913 RV | El-Sayed +4.0 | El-Sayed +4.1 | 0.13 |
| Susquehanna Polling & ResearchB+ | Aug 11–Aug 17 | 800 RV | El-Sayed +7.0 | El-Sayed +7.5 | 0.13 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact ResearchB for AARP | Aug 9–Aug 11 | 877 LV | El-Sayed +1.0 | El-Sayed +2.3 | 0.10 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News | Aug 6–Aug 10 | 1,006 RV | Rogers +4.0 | Rogers +3.4 | 0.10 |
| GBAO StrategiesB− · DEM sponsor for Senate Majority PAC | Aug 6–Aug 10 | 800 LV | El-Sayed +6.0 | El-Sayed +6.3 | 0.04 |
| TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers | Aug 6–Aug 10 | 1,528 RV | El-Sayed +3.0 | El-Sayed +3.5 | 0.08 |
| EPIC-MRAB+ for MIRS | Jul 24–Jul 31 | 600 LV | Rogers +3.0 | Rogers +0.9 | 0.04 |
| SoCal Strategies · REP sponsor for Red Eagle Politics | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 640 LV | Rogers +1.0 | El-Sayed +2.0 | 0.02 |
| Mitchell Research & CommunicationsB− | Jul 28–Jul 29 | 672 LV | El-Sayed +0.0 | El-Sayed +2.2 | 0.04 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc.B+ for Michigan Education Association, Business Leaders For Michigan | Jul 22–Jul 24 | 600 LV | Rogers +10.3 | Rogers +6.3 | 0.05 |
| Quantus Insights | Jun 29–Jun 30 | 947 LV | El-Sayed +1.1 | El-Sayed +4.1 | 0.02 |
| Zenith Research · DEM sponsor for Common Defense | Jun 11–Jun 14 | 602 LV | El-Sayed +3.0 | El-Sayed +4.6 | 0.00 |
| Tulchin ResearchB · DEM sponsor for Fighting for Michigan PAC | Jun 2–Jun 4 | 500 LV | El-Sayed +5.0 | El-Sayed +6.2 | 0.00 |
| TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers | May 20–May 23 | 1,163 LV | El-Sayed +1.0 | El-Sayed +1.4 | 0.00 |
| TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers | May 20–May 23 | 1,456 RV | El-Sayed +0.0 | El-Sayed +0.5 | 0.00 |
| Mitchell Research & CommunicationsB− for MIRS | May 1–May 7 | 607 LV | El-Sayed +1.0 | El-Sayed +2.9 | 0.00 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc.B+ for Detroit Regional Chamber | Apr 28–May 1 | 600 LV | Rogers +5.0 | Rogers +0.9 | 0.00 |
| Emerson CollegeA− for Nexstar | Jan 24–Jan 25 | 1,000 LV | Rogers +0.3 | El-Sayed +2.7 | 0.00 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc.B+ for Detroit News, WDIV-TV | Jan 2–Jan 6 | 600 LV | Rogers +6.0 | Rogers +1.0 | 0.00 |
| Mitchell Research & CommunicationsB− for MIRS News Service | Nov 18–Nov 21 | 616 LV | Rogers +3.0 | El-Sayed +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Rosetta Stone | Oct 23–Oct 25 | 637 LV | Rogers +14.0 | Rogers +9.9 | 0.00 |
| Glengariff Group, Inc.B+ for Detroit Regional Chamber | May 5–May 8 | 600 RV | Rogers +6.0 | El-Sayed +1.4 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: El-Sayed 88, Rogers 12.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | El-Sayed +3.8 | ±1.7 sampling range; effective 16.7 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | Even | roughly 0 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | El-Sayed +10.5 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | El-Sayed +3.9 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | El-Sayed +4.5 | ±3.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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