U.S. Senate · All Oklahoma races

Oklahoma

Solid R

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N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas

Democratic

1 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Kevin Hern

Republican

99 in 100

Kevin Hern wins in 99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Kevin Hern +26.9.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hern +26.9; 80 in 100 fall between Hern +41.1 and Hern +12.8.

The candidates

Kevin Hern

Republican · American politician (born 1961)

Kevin Ray Hern is an American politician and businessman from Oklahoma. A Republican, he has been a member of the United States House of Representatives for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district since 2018. Wikipedia

Raised

$10.8M

Cash on hand

$2.8M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas

Democratic

Raised

$107K

Cash on hand

$27K

Through 2026-09-30

No biography on file yet.

Ron Meinhardt

Independent

Curtis Stinnett

Independent

Sevier White

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas against Kevin Hern yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Thomas 1, Hern 99.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+17.0	roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Hern +26.9	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Hern +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Hern +26.9	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RThe Economist: Safe RSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8 pm Eastern.
Last election: Appointed (2026)
Interim appointee ineligible to run

Senate races, closest first · this is #20 of 35