U.S. Senate · open seat · All Alabama races

Alabama

Solid R

Compare

Everett Wess

Democratic

<1 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Barry Moore

Republican

>99 in 100

Barry Moore wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Barry Moore +16.6 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Barry Moore +22.9. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moore +17.5; 80 in 100 fall between Moore +22.9 and Moore +12.2.

The candidates

Barry Moore

Republican · American politician (born 1966)

Felix Barry Moore is an American politician serving since 2025 as the U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district. The district includes Baldwin, Coffee, Covington, Dale, Escambia, Geneva, Henry, and Houston Counties, as well as most of Mobile County. The largest city in the district is Mobile. Wikipedia

Raised

$4.5M

Cash on hand

$496K

Through 2026-09-30

Everett Wess

Democratic

Raised

$117K

Cash on hand

$11K

Through 2026-09-30

No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Moore +16.6 across 2 polls testing Everett Wess against Barry Moore.

Moore +1.6 since Jul 11, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
RMG ResearchA− · REP sponsor for Alabama Policy Action	Sep 21–Sep 25	800 RV	Moore +21.0	Moore +18.4	0.51
yes. every kid.	Jul 8–Jul 11	601 LV	Moore +15.0	Moore +12.9	0.25

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Wess 0, Moore 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Moore +16.6	±5.1 sampling range; effective 1.8 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+15.0	roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Moore +22.9	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Moore +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Moore +17.5	±4.3 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Everett Wess <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Everett Wess <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Everett Wess <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RThe Economist: Safe RSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8 pm Eastern.
Last election: 60.10% R
Incumbent retiring to run for governor

Senate races, closest first · this is #33 of 35