Ed Markey wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Ed Markey +23.3 across 5 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ed Markey +42.2. Polls get 88% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Markey +25.6; 80 in 100 fall between Markey +20.4 and Markey +30.8.
John E. Deaton is an American attorney and political candidate. He was the Republican nominee in the 2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts, losing to incumbent Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren, and became the nominee again for the 2026 United States Senate election in Massachusetts. Wikipedia
Edward John Markey is an American politician serving as the junior United States senator from the state of Massachusetts, a seat he has held since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, he served 20 terms as the U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 7th congressional district from 1976 to 2013. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Markey +23.3 across 5 polls testing Ed Markey against John Deaton.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling GroupA− for CommonWealth Beacon | Sep 14–Sep 22 | 800 LV | Markey +26.0 | Markey +25.3 | 0.97 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 564 LV | Markey +23.0 | Markey +23.4 | 0.41 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 881 LV | Markey +19.0 | Markey +20.5 | 0.37 |
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGovB for WCVB-TV | Aug 5–Aug 12 | 800 RV | Markey +21.0 | Markey +22.7 | 0.46 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 623 LV | Markey +16.0 | Markey +18.0 | 0.15 |
| Suffolk UniversityA− for The Boston Globe | Jun 8–Jun 12 | 500 RV | Markey +25.0 | Markey +26.0 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Apr 16–Apr 20 | 603 LV | Markey +23.0 | Markey +25.1 | 0.00 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Feb 12–Feb 16 | 616 LV | Markey +29.0 | Markey +31.6 | 0.00 |
| Suffolk UniversityA− for Boston Globe | Nov 19–Nov 23 | 500 RV | Markey +23.0 | Markey +25.0 | 0.00 |
| SurveyUSAA− for MA Responsible Alliance | Feb 28–Mar 4 | 775 RV | Markey +19.0 | Markey +25.1 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Markey 100, Deaton 0.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 88% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Markey +23.3 | ±3.5 sampling range; effective 3.7 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+14.0 | roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Deaton +0.2 | In 2020 they ran 0.3 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Markey +3.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Markey +42.2 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Markey +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Markey +25.6 | ±3.9 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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