Raymond McKay
Republican
Raised$196K
Cash on hand$7K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. Senate · All Rhode Island races
Rhode Island
Solid D
Jack Reed
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Raymond McKay
Republican
<1 in 100
Jack Reed wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Jack Reed +20.7 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jack Reed +41.1. Polls get 87% of the weight 15 days out.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Reed +23.4; 80 in 100 fall between Reed +18.3 and Reed +28.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jack ReedIncumbent
Democratic · American politician (born 1949)
John Francis Reed is an American politician, lawyer, and former Army officer serving as the senior United States senator from Rhode Island, a seat he was first elected to in 1996. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the U.S. representative for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district from 1991 to 1997. Wikipedia
Raised$4.7M
Cash on hand$3.0M
Through 2026-09-30
Michael Bahry
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
The polling average stands at Reed +20.7 across 3 polls testing Jack Reed against Raymond McKay.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 598 LV | Reed +20.0 | Reed +20.4 | 0.43 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Aug 20–Aug 24 | 750 LV | Reed +20.0 | Reed +21.5 | 0.35 |
| University of New HampshireB+ | Jun 18–Jun 23 | 664 LV | Reed +18.0 | Reed +20.0 | 0.16 |
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Reed 100, McKay 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 87% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Reed +20.7 | ±4.2 sampling range; effective 2.6 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Reed +10.0 | In 2014 they ran 23.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Reed +3.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Reed +41.1 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Reed +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Reed +23.4 | ±4.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Jack Reed >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Jack Reed >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jack Reed >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Published ratings
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Safe DThe Economist: Safe DSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid DSplit Ticket: Safe D
County map
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
Rules and notes
- Last polls close at 8 pm Eastern.
- Last election: 66.48% D
- Incumbent renominated
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