U.S. Senate · open seat · All Wyoming races

Wyoming

Solid R

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James W. Byrd

Democratic

<1 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Harriet Hageman

Republican

>99 in 100

Harriet Hageman wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Harriet Hageman +36.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hageman +36.4; 80 in 100 fall between Hageman +50.8 and Hageman +22.2.

The candidates

James W. Byrd

Democratic · American politician (born 1954)

James W. Byrd is an American politician and former Democratic member of the Wyoming House of Representatives, representing the 44th district from 2009 to 2019. Wikipedia

Raised

$41K

Cash on hand

$4K

Through 2026-09-30

Harriet Hageman

Republican · American politician (born 1962)

Harriet Maxine Hageman is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district since 2023. She is the Republican nominee for the 2026 United States Senate election in Wyoming, seeking to succeed incumbent Cynthia Lummis. Wikipedia

Raised

$2.7M

Cash on hand

$594K

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested James W. Byrd against Harriet Hageman yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Byrd <1, Hageman >99.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+23.0	roughly 46 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbency	none	open seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimate	Hageman +36.4	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Hageman +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Hageman +36.4	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: James W. Byrd <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: James W. Byrd <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: James W. Byrd 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RThe Economist: Safe RSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 72.85% R
Incumbent retiring

Senate races, closest first · this is #31 of 35