U.S. Senate · All West Virginia races

West Virginia

Solid R

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Rachel Fetty Anderson

Democratic

<1 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Shelley Moore Capito

Republican · incumbent

>99 in 100

Shelley Moore Capito wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Shelley Moore Capito +37.6.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Capito +37.4; 80 in 100 fall between Capito +51.8 and Capito +23.3.

The candidates

Rachel Fetty Anderson

Democratic

No biography on file yet.

Shelley Moore CapitoIncumbent

Republican · American politician (born 1953)

Shelley Wellons Moore Capito is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from West Virginia. A member of the Republican Party, Capito served from 2001 to 2015 as the U.S. representative from West Virginia's 2nd congressional district. Wikipedia

Raised

$7.1M

Cash on hand

$4.6M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

S. Marshall Wilson

Constitution

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Rachel Fetty Anderson against Shelley Moore Capito yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Anderson 0, Capito 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+21.0	roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Capito +2.2	In 2020 they ran 4.4 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Capito +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Capito +37.5	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Capito +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Capito +37.5	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Rachel Fetty Anderson <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Rachel Fetty Anderson <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Rachel Fetty Anderson 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RThe Economist: Safe RSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 7:30 pm Eastern.
Last election: 70.28% R
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #30 of 35