U.S. Senate · All Tennessee races

Tennessee

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Marquita Bradshaw

Democratic

<1 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Bill Hagerty

Republican · incumbent

>99 in 100

Bill Hagerty wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Bill Hagerty +15.6 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bill Hagerty +23.3. Polls get 80% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hagerty +17.1; 80 in 100 fall between Hagerty +23.3 and Hagerty +10.8.

The candidates

Marquita Bradshaw

Democratic · American environmentalist and political candidate (born 1974)

Marquita Bradshaw is an American environmentalist, activist, and political candidate. She was the Democratic nominee in the 2020 United States Senate election in Tennessee, the first African American woman to win a major political party nomination in any statewide race in Tennessee. Wikipedia

Raised

$29K

Cash on hand

$26K

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Bill HagertyIncumbent

Republican · American politician and diplomat (born 1959)

William Francis Hagerty IV is an American politician, businessman, and diplomat serving as the junior United States senator from Tennessee since 2021. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 30th United States ambassador to Japan from 2017 to 2019 under President Donald Trump. Wikipedia

Raised

$17.0M

Cash on hand

$5.3M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Tharon Chandler

Independent

Andrew Gerena

Independent

Jeremy Hearn

Independent

Robert Jones

Independent

James Macon III

Independent

Yoshi Matthews

Independent

David Sutman Jr.

Independent

Catherine Whitson

Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Hagerty +15.6 across 1 poll testing Marquita Bradshaw against Bill Hagerty.

Bradshaw +1.5 since Aug 26, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Targoz Market ResearchC+ for Beacon Center of Tennessee	Aug 15–Aug 26	1,157 RV	Hagerty +20.0	Hagerty +15.6	0.51

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Hagerty +1 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Bradshaw <1, Hagerty >99.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 81% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Hagerty +15.6	±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+14.0	roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Hagerty +1.9	In 2020 they ran 3.8 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Hagerty +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Hagerty +23.3	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Hagerty +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Hagerty +17.1	±5.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Marquita Bradshaw <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Marquita Bradshaw <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Marquita Bradshaw <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RThe Economist: Safe RSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8 pm Eastern.
Last election: 62.20% R
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #29 of 35

Tennessee

Where the result could land ?

The candidates

Polls ?

Chance of winning over time

What’s driving the forecast

All three versions

Published ratings

County map

Rules and notes

Where the result could land

Polls