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New Mexico

Solid D

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Ben Ray Luján

Democratic · incumbent

>99 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Larry Marker

Republican

<1 in 100

Ben Ray Luján wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Ben Ray Luján +17.4 across 2 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ben Ray Luján +18.3. Polls get 86% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Luján +17.5; 80 in 100 fall between Luján +12.2 and Luján +22.8.

The candidates

Ben Ray LujánIncumbent

Democratic · American politician (born 1972)

Ben Ray Luján is an American politician serving since 2021 as the junior United States senator from New Mexico. From 2009 to 2021, he represented New Mexico's 3rd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives; he served as assistant speaker from 2019 to 2021. Luján is a self-described progressive Democrat. Wikipedia

Official website ↗

Larry Marker

Republican

Raised

$92K

Cash on hand

$2K

Through 2026-09-30

No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Luján +17.4 across 2 polls testing Ben Ray Luján against Larry Marker.

Luján +2.4 since Aug 28, 2026

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
SurveyUSAA− for KOB-TV (Albuquerque)	Sep 25–Sep 30	576 LV	Luján +18.0	Luján +17.9	0.89
Research & Polling Inc.A− for Albuquerque Journal	Aug 21–Aug 28	516 LV	Luján +15.0	Luján +16.5	0.56

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Luján +8 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Luján >99, Marker <1.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 86% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Luján +17.4	±5.0 sampling range; effective 1.9 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+4.0	roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Marker +2.3	In 2020 they ran 4.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Luján +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Luján +18.3	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Luján +20.9	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Luján +17.5	±4.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Ben Ray Luján >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Ben Ray Luján >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ben Ray Luján >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Safe DThe Economist: Safe DSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Likely DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid DSplit Ticket: Safe D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 9 pm Eastern.
Last election: 51.73% D
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #28 of 35