Chris Coons wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Chris Coons +32.4.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Coons +32.4; 80 in 100 fall between Coons +18.1 and Coons +46.6.
Christopher Andrew Coons is an American politician and lawyer serving as the senior United States senator from Delaware, a seat he has held since 2010. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as the county executive of New Castle County from 2005 to 2010. Wikipedia
Michael S. Katz is an American physician and politician from the state of Delaware. Katz represented the 4th district in the Delaware State Senate for one term, serving from 2009 to 2013. He made a short-lived bid for President of the United States in the 2020 election. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Chris Coons against Michael Katz yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Coons >99, Katz <1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Coons +1.3 | In 2020 they ran 2.6 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Coons +3.0 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Coons +32.4 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Coons +22.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Coons +32.4 | ±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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