U.S. Senate · All Oregon races

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Jeff Merkley

Democratic · incumbent

>99 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

David Brock Smith

Republican

<1 in 100

Jeff Merkley wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jeff Merkley +31.9.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Merkley +31.8; 80 in 100 fall between Merkley +17.6 and Merkley +46.3.

The candidates

Jeff MerkleyIncumbent

Democratic · American politician (born 1956)

Jeffrey Alan Merkley is an American politician who is the junior United States senator from Oregon. He was first elected to the Senate in 2008. Wikipedia

Raised

$8.6M

Cash on hand

$6.8M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

David Brock Smith

Republican · American politician

David Brock Smith is an American Republican politician currently serving in the Oregon State Senate. He represents the 1st district, which covers all of Curry County and parts of Coos and Douglas counties. He is the Republican nominee in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Oregon. Wikipedia

Raised

$291K

Cash on hand

$50K

Through 2026-09-30

Gary Lyndon Dye

Libertarian

Chris Henry

Progressive

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Jeff Merkley against David Brock Smith yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Merkley >99, Smith <1.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	—	no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	D+8.0	roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Merkley +0.8	In 2020 they ran 1.5 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Merkley +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Merkley +31.9	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Merkley +22.0	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Merkley +31.9	±11.2 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Jeff Merkley >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals: Jeff Merkley >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jeff Merkley >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid DDDHQ: Safe DThe Economist: Safe DSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe DFox News: Solid DInside Elections: Solid DRCP: Solid DSabato: Safe DSilver Bulletin: Solid DSplit Ticket: Safe D

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 10 pm and 11 pm Eastern.
Last election: 56.91% D
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #25 of 35