U.S. Senate · All Arkansas races

Arkansas

Solid R

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Hallie Shoffner

Democratic

<1 in 100

chance of winning, out of 100

Tom Cotton

Republican · incumbent

>99 in 100

Tom Cotton wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Tom Cotton +10.7 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tom Cotton +16.7. Polls get 87% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cotton +11.5; 80 in 100 fall between Cotton +16.6 and Cotton +6.4.

The candidates

Tom CottonIncumbent

Republican · American politician (born 1977)

Thomas Bryant Cotton is an American politician and former Army officer serving since 2015 as the junior United States senator from Arkansas. From 2013 to 2015 he served in the U.S. House of Representatives, representing Arkansas's 4th congressional district. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia

Raised

$14.4M

Cash on hand

$6.8M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Hallie Shoffner

Democratic · American political candidate (born 1987)

Hallie Shoffner is an American farmer and political candidate. She previously managed her family's rice and soybean farm, a seed company, and founded an agricultural food hub. Wikipedia

Raised

$3.7M

Cash on hand

$1.4M

Through 2026-09-30

Official website ↗

Jeff Wadlin

Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Cotton +10.7 across 3 polls testing Hallie Shoffner against Tom Cotton.

Shoffner +10.5 over the past 6 months

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

Pollster	Dates	Sample	Result	Adjusted	Weight
Hendrix CollegeA for Talk Business & Politics	Oct 8–Oct 13	709 LV	Cotton +9.0	Cotton +8.9	1.23
Grayhouse	Sep 30–Oct 4	550 LV	Cotton +11.0	Cotton +10.7	0.63
J.L. PartnersC+	Aug 14–Aug 18	803 LV	Cotton +16.0	Cotton +15.5	0.46
GrayHouse · REP sponsor for America One Policies	Feb 7–Feb 9	550 LV	Cotton +22.0	Cotton +19.0	0.00

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Cotton +4 over the past 3 months

Out of 100. Today: Shoffner <1, Cotton >99.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 87% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)	Cotton +10.7	±4.3 sampling range; effective 2.5 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines)	R+15.0	roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment	D+9.6	generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record	Shoffner +8.1	In 2014 they ran 16.2 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
Incumbency	Cotton +3.0	incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimate	Cotton +16.7	±11 typical error
Expert ratings (average)	Cotton +20.9	used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
Forecast	Cotton +11.5	±4.1 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

Polls only: Hallie Shoffner 1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals: Hallie Shoffner <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Polls + fundamentals + experts: Hallie Shoffner <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Published ratings

Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.

Cook: Solid RDDHQ: Safe RThe Economist: Likely RSplit Ticket/FPO: Safe RFox News: Solid RInside Elections: Solid RRCP: Solid RSabato: Safe RSilver Bulletin: Solid RSplit Ticket: Safe R

County map

Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.

Color shows the 2024 presidential margin in each county. Hover or tap a county for its numbers.

2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.

Rules and notes

Last polls close at 8:30 pm Eastern.
Last election: 66.53% R
Incumbent renominated

Senate races, closest first · this is #24 of 35