Republicans hold this seat today (current holder); Democrats are favored: 99 in 100 that it changes hands.
Roy Cooper wins in 99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Roy Cooper +10.7 across 19 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Roy Cooper +9.0. Polls get 89% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Cooper +10.5; 80 in 100 fall between Cooper +5.5 and Cooper +15.4.
Roy Asberry Cooper III is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 75th governor of North Carolina from 2017 to 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as the 50th attorney general of North Carolina from 2001 to 2017 and in the North Carolina General Assembly from 1987 to 2001. Wikipedia
Michael David Whatley is an American politician and lawyer who was chair of the Republican National Committee from 2024 to 2025. He previously served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party from 2019 to 2024. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Cooper +10.7 across 19 polls testing Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSAA− for WRAL-TV, WSOC-TV | Oct 7–Oct 11 | 643 LV | Cooper +14.0 | Cooper +13.8 | 0.84 |
| Change ResearchB− · DEM sponsor for Carolina Forward | Oct 1–Oct 7 | 829 LV | Cooper +10.0 | Cooper +8.1 | 0.17 |
| East Carolina UniversityA− | Sep 30–Oct 3 | 810 LV | Cooper +7.0 | Cooper +7.6 | 0.48 |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project | Sep 27–Sep 29 | 642 LV | Cooper +12.0 | Cooper +11.5 | 0.37 |
| InsiderAdvantageB− | Sep 16–Sep 17 | 1,200 LV | Cooper +5.9 | Cooper +7.5 | 0.36 |
| High Point University Survey Research CenterB− | Sep 9–Sep 16 | 706 LV | Cooper +8.0 | Cooper +8.6 | 0.13 |
| Harper PollingA− for Carolina Journal | Sep 13–Sep 15 | 608 LV | Cooper +15.0 | Cooper +14.4 | 0.22 |
| East Carolina UniversityA− | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 675 LV | Cooper +8.0 | Cooper +10.2 | 0.14 |
| Elon University/YouGovB+ | Aug 21–Aug 31 | 565 LV | Cooper +11.0 | Cooper +10.7 | 0.08 |
| High Point University Survey Research CenterB− | Aug 3–Aug 12 | 660 LV | Cooper +5.0 | Cooper +6.1 | 0.03 |
| High Point University Survey Research CenterB− | Aug 3–Aug 12 | 800 RV | Cooper +7.0 | Cooper +8.2 | 0.04 |
| Harper PollingA− for The Carolina Journal | Aug 9–Aug 10 | 600 LV | Cooper +12.5 | Cooper +12.5 | 0.06 |
| Change ResearchB− · DEM sponsor for Carolina Forward | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 915 LV | Cooper +7.0 | Cooper +6.7 | 0.02 |
| Change ResearchB− for Talking About Politics | Jul 29–Aug 1 | 967 LV | Cooper +9.0 | Cooper +8.9 | 0.03 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchA for Fox News | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 1,005 RV | Cooper +9.0 | Cooper +10.0 | 0.06 |
| Elon University/YouGovB+ | Jul 21–Jul 23 | 717 RV | Cooper +16.0 | Cooper +15.9 | 0.02 |
| Elon University/YouGovB+ | Jul 21–Jul 23 | 466 LV | Cooper +11.0 | Cooper +10.8 | 0.02 |
| Public Policy PollingA− | Jul 10–Jul 11 | 759 LV | Cooper +4.0 | Cooper +5.9 | 0.03 |
| The New York Times/Siena UniversityA | Jun 15–Jun 27 | 601 LV | Cooper +7.0 | Cooper +10.5 | 0.01 |
| YouGovA− for Catawba College Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service | Jun 1–Jun 10 | 905 LV | Cooper +14.0 | Cooper +16.2 | 0.00 |
| Harper PollingA− for Carolina Journal | May 10–May 11 | 600 LV | Cooper +11.1 | Cooper +11.5 | 0.00 |
| Change ResearchB− · DEM sponsor for Carolina Forward | May 4–May 8 | 957 LV | Cooper +7.0 | Cooper +6.7 | 0.00 |
| Opinion Diagnostics · REP sponsor | Apr 21–Apr 24 | 830 LV | Cooper +9.0 | Cooper +11.1 | 0.00 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGovB− | Mar 26–Apr 6 | 703 LV | Cooper +8.0 | Cooper +10.8 | 0.00 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center/YouGovB− | Mar 26–Apr 6 | 800 RV | Cooper +10.0 | Cooper +12.9 | 0.00 |
| Harper PollingA− for Carolina Journal | Mar 22–Mar 23 | 600 LV | Cooper +7.8 | Cooper +8.9 | 0.00 |
| YouGovA− for Catawba College Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service | Mar 9–Mar 18 | 871 LV | Cooper +14.0 | Cooper +16.8 | 0.00 |
| Public Policy PollingA− | Mar 13–Mar 14 | 556 RV | Cooper +3.0 | Cooper +5.7 | 0.00 |
| Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions for Healthier United Fund | Mar 8–Mar 9 | 800 LV | Cooper +18.0 | Cooper +19.3 | 0.00 |
| Change ResearchB− | Jan 31–Feb 4 | 1,069 RV | Cooper +10.0 | Cooper +10.9 | 0.00 |
| TIPP InsightsA− · REP sponsor for League of American Workers | Jan 12–Jan 15 | 1,512 RV | Cooper +24.0 | Cooper +26.0 | 0.00 |
| Change ResearchB− · DEM sponsor | Jan 5–Jan 7 | 1,105 LV | Cooper +5.0 | Cooper +5.8 | 0.00 |
| Harper PollingA− for Carolina Journal | Nov 9–Nov 10 | 600 LV | Cooper +8.0 | Cooper +10.5 | 0.00 |
| Harper PollingA− for Carolina Journal | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 600 LV | Cooper +4.0 | Cooper +6.5 | 0.00 |
| Change ResearchB− · DEM sponsor for Carolina Forward | Sep 2–Sep 8 | 855 LV | Cooper +7.0 | Cooper +9.1 | 0.00 |
| Harper PollingA− for Carolina Journal | Aug 11–Aug 12 | 600 LV | Cooper +8.2 | Cooper +11.2 | 0.00 |
| Victory InsightsB | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 600 LV | Cooper +0.9 | Cooper +6.3 | 0.00 |
| Emerson CollegeA− | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,000 RV | Cooper +5.3 | Cooper +10.2 | 0.00 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Cooper 99, Whatley 1.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 89% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Cooper +10.7 | ±2.5 sampling range; effective 7.2 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+1.0 | roughly 2 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Cooper +9.0 | ±11 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | Cooper +12.0 | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Cooper +10.5 | ±3.8 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
Other forecasters’ ratings, as listed on Wikipedia. Shown for comparison; they feed only the “+ Expert ratings” version.
Counties colored by the 2024 presidential vote; on election night this switches to the live count in this race.
2024 results: Fox News 2024 county results, compiled by Tony McGovern (github.com/tonmcg/US_County_Level_Election_Results_08-24). Not authoritative.
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