Republicans hold this seat today (the sitting member’s party; the lines are new); Democrats are favored: 92 in 100 that it changes hands.
Brian Poindexter wins in 92 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Brian Poindexter +10.7 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Max Miller +4.1. Polls get 63% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Poindexter +5.3; 80 in 100 fall between Poindexter +0.6 and Poindexter +10.0.
Max Leonard Miller is an American politician who has served as the U.S. representative for Ohio's 7th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as a political appointee in the first Donald Trump administration. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Poindexter +10.7 across 3 polls testing Brian Poindexter against Max Miller.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedrock Polling · DEM sponsor for The Next 50, Iron Workers International | Aug 7–Aug 10 | 866 LV | Poindexter +8.0 | Poindexter +10.2 | 0.21 |
| Tavern Research | Aug 4–Aug 5 | 560 LV | Poindexter +8.0 | Poindexter +12.2 | 0.32 |
| Unknown (Reported by NOTUS) · REP sponsor | Jul 29–Jul 30 | — | Poindexter +5.0 | Poindexter +8.0 | 0.16 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Poindexter 93, Miller 7.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 63% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Poindexter +10.7 | ±4.1 sampling range; effective 2.7 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Miller +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Miller +4.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Poindexter +5.3 | ±3.5 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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